1、1The Feasible Strategy for Solving Water Problem in ChinaAbstract. Chinas development is enormously limited by fresh water. Water problem is severe and to meet water demand in 2025. We build a feasible strategy which we have considered storage, desalination and conservation problems. First, we estim
2、ate the total water demand of China in 2025 by using Secondary Exponential Smoothing method. Then, according to water possession per capita, water shortage can be classified into four categories: mild, medium, severe, and extreme. Considering the level of water shortage, economic efficiency and pros
3、pects of economic growth, we choose some cities to build Seawater Desalination Plant to solve problems. At last, we analyze the influence of GDP, water possession and precipitation on water usage per capita based on SPSS, to discover the relation that can help us to build a more proper strategy. Key
4、 words: Exponential Smoothing; desalination; economic; SPSS; Introduction 2Water resource is one of the fundamental natural resources and one of the controlling elements in the environment. In the meantime, it is also a strategic economic resource and an indispensable part of a nations comprehensive
5、 power. Waters growing influence on the global environment and progress has made it one of the most significant issues for all governments. The long-lasting and fast-growing problem of Chinas water resource mainly stays in the severe shortage of water resources. Utilizable water resource per capita
6、is merely 900 cubic meters, and the distribution of it is extremely unbalanced. Most cities in China have the problem of water supply deficiency which the total number of the gap between water demand and water supply is 6billion cubic meters. Predicts of Water Demand To predict the demand of water i
7、n 2025, we use the exponential smoothing prediction method. We make the arrangement that the time series is , and then the first exponential smoothing formula is: First exponential smoothing method is to use the smoothing value above to predict. The predicting mode is as follows: We need to revise a
8、fter using the first exponential smoothing method, and the method of revising is second 3exponential smoothing prediction. Then we can build the straight line trend projection model. We can draw the chart of the first exponential smoothing value curve graph as below: Fig.1 First Exponential Smoothin
9、g Chart Fig.2 Secondary Exponential Smoothing Chart We can draw the conclusion that the demand for water resource possesses the growing trend of evident linearity. However, which is used to show the degree of the linearity is 0.968, hence using the second exponential smoothing prediction method to e
10、nhance the efficiency of prediction. The results are as follows: In this second prediction, reaches the value of 0.989 as is shown above which can excellently explain the linear relation between year and water consumption. Then we can solve the linear water demand predicted model: The projected dema
11、nd of water in 2025 is: Billion Water Distribution in China possession of water per capita in China We can utilize possession of water per capita every year in China to define the degree of water shortage. When we draw the chart, we omit these two provinces to make the chart more 4legible to us. The
12、 graph below includes 29 provinces of 31 provinces excluding Qinghai and Tibet (except from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan). Fig.3 the possession of water From the figure, we can find out that we define four levels: mild, medium, severe and extreme. a brief scan of water strategies As for different reg
13、ions we provide different strategies according to their geographic, economic and other factors. China is a country of vast territory; we can draw the strategies for different provinces. The shortage of water in China can be classified into two categories: resource-oriented water shortage and qualita
14、tive-oriented water shortage. In these provinces, Liaoning, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong are provinces that are coastal provinces. Among these, Tianjin, Beijing, Hebei and Shandong have the problem of the extreme shortage of water; Liaoning and Jiangsu hav
15、e the problem of a severe shortage; Guangdong and Zhejiang have the problem of mild shortage. We may use seawater desalination for those coastal provinces with the problem of water shortage and details are discussed further on. South to North Water Transfer 5Project cover Henan, Hebei, Beijing, Tian
16、jin, Jiangsu and we can utilize this achievement and make it blossom. Those provinces with a qualitative-oriented water shortage or severe pollution of water, we must make the quality of the water better. Waters with better quality are also needed conservations. Strategies and models will be express
17、ed in detail in other sections of this paper later. Seawater Desalination influencing factors of site selection (1).Water resource When we are selecting the site, we should try to choose the province where the possession of water resource is low and the average utilization of water resource not reac
18、h the standard. What is more, if the difference between different years precipitation is a lot, which would lead to a situation that some year the province would extreme lack of water, therefore this province is suitable for using sea water desalinization. (2) Economical Efficiency of Access to Seaw
19、ater Access to seawater must be taken into consideration when choosing sites of seawater desalination plants. If this place is anything but far to a sea, we cannot choose this place as a site for the factory, for the transportation fee may roar up 6high into the sky. (3) Prospect of Economic Growth
20、in the Potential Region Those cities whose GDP have the potential to grow or their population are on the rise, have better chances than those whose GDP and population stay stable. If more developers are settling in city A, water resource may not be plentiful for 2025 in this city. Then a seawater de
21、salination plant may prompt the prosperous of this city hence encouraging more investors. On the contrary, a city with a slow pace of development may have few opportunities to investors, and a plant of desalination may have beyond their ability to pay. (4) The economy of cities Operating a seawater
22、desalinization plant, the economy of the region where the plant is can highly influence the running cost. There are various factors, such as: the ground price, the cost of traffic, the salary of artisan. When selecting the site, the factors must be considered so that we could decrease running cost.
23、the result of our site selection of factory Fig.4 Site Selection Previously we have discussed that there are 6 coastal provinces in China that have a problem of water shortage. They 7are Tianjin, Liaoning, Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Shanghai. After considering these four factors above, we have ch
24、osen five cities from these provinces. They are Huludao in Liaoning, Cangzhou in Hebei, Yantai in Shandong, Nantong in Jiangsu, and Ningbo in Zhejiang. We can observe from the map that these cities are all close to the sea and have great potential of developing. Huludao and Cangzhou are near to Beij
25、ing and Tianjin, whose water resource is much lower than the demand. These two factories can solve the water shortage in these two big cities. Similarly, Ningbo can provide the water use in Shanghai and its own. Conservation the relation of water usage with different factors In order to find the rel
26、ationship between the consumption of water per capita, possession of water per capita, GDP per capita and the annual average precipitation. We need to use SPSS to apply linear regression analysis. linear regression analysis theory Linear regression analysis theory is a fundamental regression analysi
27、s, and it assumes that there must be a linear relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variables. The mathematic model formula for linear 8regression analysis should be: Among the matrix form formula， ，which is explained variables； ，which is the model intercept； which is the
28、estimated parameters； ，which is the explaining variables ； ，which is the error term. The change for the explained variables can be explained by two parts. One is the linear part combined by , the other is error term . Generally use the least squares estimation method to estimate the parameters. Due
29、to the differences of the above-mentioned variables on the magnitude and units of measurement, so that between each variable does not have a comprehensive, then it should be done by use of some method to standardize the processing of each variable value, or called dimensionless, to solve different t
30、he problem which the values cant be comprehensive. SPSS linear regression prediction Applying the Linear regression prediction to the standardized processing variables is in order to get the regression coefficients of the linear regression model and some statistics. Next, regression model equation c
31、an be obtained as follows: Among： :consumption of water per capital， :GDP， :possession of water per capital， :precipitation. 9Figured out from the above equation, the coefficients for GDP，possession of water per capital，rainfall capacity are 0.094，0.633，0.494 respectively. On the one hand, it can be
32、 learned that the change of consumption of water per capital caused by possession of water per capital and rainfall capacity is significant. On the other hand, the probability values(sig) are 0.006，0.013 respectively. Research shows that the smaller the sig, the better linear relation it represents.
33、 So we can learn that the coefficients are also very significant and possession of water, rainfall capacity and consumption of water has significant linear relationship. But for GDP, the influence on consumption of water per capita is not a significant linear relationship. Coefficientsa Model Unstan
34、dardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients T Sig. B Std. Error Beta (Constant) -3.644E-16 .161 .000 1.000 Zscore(GDP) .094 .188 .094 .500 .621 Zscore: possession of water per capital .633 .209 .633 3.034 .006 Zscore(precipitation) .494 .185 .494 -2.675 .013 10a. Dependent Variable: Zscore: cons
35、umption of water per capital Fig.5 Coefficients residual analysis We also apply some statistics for residuals and carry out the standard P-P graph of residuals. This P-P graph uses the cumulative probability of the actual observed value as the horizontal axis and the cumulative probability of the no
36、rmal distribution as the longitudinal axis. As can be seen from the figure, all the scattered points are distributed in the range of allowable error, and therefore can determine the standardized residuals follow a normal distribution. Fig.6 Observed Cum Prob Conclusions By the above statistics, we c
37、an conclude that, in order to save water resources and to meet the demand, some measures should be taken into action: (1) Among the three factors we have studied according to SPSS, we can summarize that possession of water and rainfall capacity has a strong linear relationship with the consumption of water. So we can give them a rise in water fee than they can consume less water to save the total possession of water of
