1、1本科毕业论文外文翻译外文文献译文标题根据于2007年底至2008年发生在中国的雪灾建立网上危机管理支持系统资料来源第三届中国管理学年会论文集作者PROFHOEKYUNSHIN近年来，世界性的危机事件频繁发生，地震、洪水、干旱以及其他自然灾害持续产生导致了全世界每年数以万计的人死亡，数以万计的人受到伤害，还有数百万美元的经济损失。中国也成为了极易发生自然灾害的国家之一。2007年底至2008年初，中国南部发生了一场特大雪灾，给中国政府和中国人民带来了极其严重的损失。造成这些损失的一个重要原因就是中国政府尚未建立危机应对机制去面对这样一种巨大的灾难。本篇论文着重讨论这场雪灾中暴露的一系列的问题，
2、如政府组织应对灾难的不足之处、法律法规的缺陷漏洞以及中国政府对紧急事件的系统化处理的认识缺乏。根据全球流行病学研究中心EMDAT的统计,全球每年发生600次以上的自然灾害，根据记录显示灾难频率似乎正在增加。2007年底至2008年，不寻常的冷空气伴随着大雪和冰雹影响了中国的19个省，被视为最严重的一次降雪，此次降雪严重袭击了中国的中部、东部和南部省份。在50多年里，这样的极端天气，已经给人们带来了接二连三的灾难。受到影响的省份包括湖南、湖北、贵州、广西、江西、安徽、河南、陕西、甘肃、宁夏、青海、新疆、四川、重庆、云南、江苏、上海和浙江。从2007年年底到2008年,在中国南方发生了一场严重的冰
3、雪灾害。由于中国政府没有做好充分的准备，没能很好的处理雪灾措施，给中国造成了巨大损失。据中国官方统计中国南方地区的暴风雪已经造成至少15亿美元的损失。在本文中，我们分析在此次雪灾中存在的问题，并建议中国政府对异常情况采取CMSS方案应对冰雪灾害。在一场危机中，危机管理支持系统CMSS是希望能够帮助用户准备、分析、解决冲突。一个CMSS可以在多方面帮助决策者（1）大型网上数据库访问的应对信息与分析数据的可靠性；（2）寻求利用分布式知识库推理并从中汲取经验2教训；3使用群体决策支持系统DSS来缓解危机，提高群体决策质量，提高组织的应对灾难的能力。分析此次危机事件，有以下几个原因值得重视（1）从20
4、07年年底到2008年发生在中国南部的大雪灾，从危机发生后半个月之后中国政府的统一和协调救灾行动才开始。地方政府没有预料到冰雪灾害，并且中国对目前存在的五个紧急应变计划的规划，在国家自然灾害范畴内并不包括冰雪灾害。（2）中国政府信息系统具有很多的局限性。中国政府管理信息系统是各自部门相互独立的。和大多数国家能通过公共网络达到一定程度的互操作性相比，中国政府在网络这方面存在缺失。独家数据部门之间也无法共享,甚至机密的事情也一样。（3）法律的漏洞。现有的应急预案体系和突发事件应对法对于此并没有完全的覆盖，以致灾害发生的时候甚至无法做到有法律保障。中国真正的紧急救援工作仍然依赖于当前的高度团结统一。
5、在党和政府的统一领导下才能完成。当然，当突发事件发生时，无论是否有一个计划，我们都需要依靠一个强大的管理机制来确保。中国现行的集中决策系统是基于党和政府之间的关系，但法律的作用不容忽视。（4）中国城市应急联合系统没有形成。例如，尽管拥有相当数量的公共服务编号，如110报警，120紧急医疗，122为交通警察，但缺乏一个统一的指挥调度平台、不同的警察和情报部门不能进行良好的合作与协调，共同诉讼。这一调度平台现在还面临许多难题如平衡各部门之间的利益，落实在许多领域的责任区块划分等问题。CERS应急响应系统联盟将更准确、快速地与警方等社会职能部门取得联系并提供有效的保护，从而提高快速反应能力，能够处理
6、突发的、城市性的、特殊的、灾难性的事件。CERS也会使城市之间分配有一定数目的指挥中心，以便离散数据库和信息资源共享，以发挥更大的作用。CERS应急响应系统联盟理论上采用统一的指挥调度系统进行统一指挥、协调运作，从而使形成一个真正的联合行动，达到社会服务的职能和目的成为可能。本文试图在结合危机决策的特点与实际情况的基础上，根据中国政府危机管理的思路，建立现代有效的政府危机决策支持系统模型。通过对上述问题的3分析提出中国冰雪灾害危机处理的缺陷，然后通过危机管理支持系统为冰雪灾害危机处理展示具体操作过程和分析子系统。建立CMSS模型的目的是提出最有效的和最可接受的对策，以期为中国冰雪灾害等突发性自
7、然灾害提供处理方案与指导，使损失减少到最低程度。CMSS模型处理子系统中的环境扫描系统冰雪灾难扫描中，环境监测点贯穿整个国家，环境水平每十分钟会被记录下来并通过在线通信系统传递到中央计算机进行水平检查。在那里系统会将测量水平与冰雪灾害的水平进行横行比较，然后通过复活后自动报警，以达到预警的作用。威胁评估组件这是表明与正常水平差异大小的技术措施，并增加了冰雪灾害的知觉价值。依靠天气预报系统与遥感和监控体系，降雪和温度能被观察。在通过对检查点的降雪量和降雪深度的测量后，再结合背景信息，系统能提醒冰雪灾害等级。背景数据库包括下列重要数据库社会经济状况的数据库（包括健康、交通、国民生产总值和其他基本数
8、据）、气象的数据库（包括温度、降雪、和其他气象数据的数据库。为决策者提供全方位的对策，减少这一技能的伤害和冰雪灾害。组合后的对策会比单一对策更具有参考价值。在这个过程中，基于不同的技术标准，一组专家来决定怎样合理的对对策进行校勘。然后，再由政府来制定一系列的标准。为了保证信息的准确性，避免不同决策群体之间进行信息交流，需要额外的人员对在这个过程中涉及到的危机管理人员进行隔离。但是,我们必须意识到CMSS仍然存在有一定的局限性。对于CMSS来说，该模型还必须包含很大容量的人群互动。因此，对于创造一个包含所有协商、对话、协调、沟通个体之间的“完全的自动化系统”还不现实。针对存在的问题，需要进一步加
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37、ION,THESYSTEMCANWARNSNOWDISASTERRATINGBACKGROUNDDATABASEINCLUDESTHEFOLLOWINGIMPORTANTDATABASESTHESOCIOECONOMICCONDITIONDATABASEINCLUDESHEALTH,TRANSPORTATION,THEGNPANDOTHERBASICDATAMETEOROLOGICALDATABASEINCLUDESTEMPERATURE,SNOWFALL,ANDOTHERMETEOROLOGICALDATASNOWDISASTERDATABASEINCLUDESTHEREGIONANDTIM
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45、AREASFOLLOWSDECISIONMAKINGCENTERTHECENTERISSETUPINTHEPROVINCIALCOMMITTEE,PROVINCIALGOVERNMENT,THEMUNICIPALCOMMITTEEANDTHEMUNICIPALGOVERNMENT,ANDITFOCUSESONDEALINGWITHEMERGENCYEVENTSDECISIONMAKINGCOMMANDCENTERGENERALLYITISSETUPINTHEPOLICESTATION,ISRESPONSIBLEFORMEETSPOLICE,ANDCOORDINATINGANDHANDLINGT
46、HEINCIDENTSCROSSORINTERDISTRICTDISPATCHINGCENTEROFCOALITIONUNITSITISRESPONSIBLEFORPOLICESTATIONANDFIRESTATIONTOHANDLEEVENTSFOREXAMPLE,110,119,120,122,ETCDISPOSALPOWERSECTORSTHEYREFERTOTHEACTUALDEPARTMENTFORDISPOSALINGEVENTSSUCHASFIRESQUADRON,THEPOLICESTATION,FIRSTAIDSTATIONDISPOSALPOWERMARSHALLINGTH
47、EYREFERTOTHEACTUALMARSHALLINGFORDISPOSALINGTHEINCIDENTSUCHASFIREENGINES,POLICECARS,EMERGENCYVEHICLESSCENEOFTHEINCIDENTCASESANDTHESCENEOFSNOWDISASTERFINALLY,ASSESSMENTAFTERSNOWDISASTERISALSOIMPORTANTGOVERNMENTSANDEXPERTSCANLEARNLESSONSFROMTHESEPREVIOUSEVENTSCONCLUSIONFROMTHEENDOF2007TO2008,ASERIOUSSN
48、OWDISASTEROCCURREDINSOUTHCHINABUTCHINESEGOVERNMENTDIDNTBETTERDEALWITHTHESNOWDISASTERBASEDONTHEADEQUATEREADINESS,SOCHINASUFFEREDENORMOUSLOSSESINTHISPAPER,WEANALYZETHEPROBLEMSEXISTINGINCHINESEGOVERNMENT,ANDPROPOSETHENOVELAPPLICATIONOFCMSSFORCHINESESNOWDISASTERWESETUPTHESIXMAINPROCESSESFORTHEMODELHOWEV
49、ER,WEMUSTBEAWAREOFITSLIMITATIONSOFCMSSINTHECASEOFCMSS,THEMODELMUSTALSOALLOWFORALARGEDEGREEOFHUMANINTERACTIONTHEREFORE,ITISUNREALISTICTOEXPECTTOCREATEAFULLYAUTOMATEDSYSTEMBECAUSEAWHOLESERIESOFNEGOTIATIONS,DIALOGUE,COORDINATIONANDCOMMUNICATIONSBETWEENINDIVIDUALEXPERTS,GROUPSOFEXPERTS,ANDSYSTEMSAREINVOLVEDTHEFUTUREWORKINCLUDESTHEDEFININGOFMORESOPHISTICATEDSETSOFRULESTOFURTHERENHANCETHEEXPERTDISCUSSION,ANDPARTICULARLY,OURCMSSEXPERTDATABASE,ANDIMPROVETHESYSTEMFLOWINDETAIL
