1、Unit6 贫富有别，治国有道1 The sweet perfume wafting over northern Iraq does not come from the wildflowers that speckle its rumpled plains in spring. It is the smell of oil and it is everywhere, flaring at wellheads, sloshing from the tanker trucks that grind up potholed roads to backyard refineries in the Ku
2、rdish hills and fuming from their chimneys. Nor is this the oiliest part of Iraq. That lies in the deserts to the south where it literally seeps from the ground. In fact the whole of Iraq sits atop seams and pockets of the sticky stuff. There is plenty to go around, if only the Iraqis could agree to
3、 stop shooting each other.伊拉克北部的空气中弥漫的甜甜的芳香并非来自于春天里点缀着凌乱草地的野花，这种气味是由遍及这里每一寸土地的石油而散发开来的，而且随处可见开采井口冒着熊熊烈火，油罐车轧着崎岖的路面留下了一路的油渍，而它的目的地便是库尔德山间烟囱耸立的炼油厂。其实伊拉克最为盛产石油的地方还不是这里，而是位于通往南部的沙漠那里的石油简直是从地面直接渗出来的。假如这个国家族群之间的暴力争斗能够停止的话，那生活在液体黄金之上的全体伊拉克人民一定会过着安居乐业的生活。2 There is plenty for other Arabs, too. Taken togethe
4、r, their 19 countries hold some 46% of the worlds total proven oil reserves (as well as a quarter of its natural-gas reserves). The ones with the most have it doubly easy. Saudis or Kuwaitis spend just $3 to tap a barrel from their most accessible wells. Small wonder that their oilmen scoff at loomi
5、ng competition from Americas fancy frackers and shalers. The technical wizardry of the modern drilling techniques that may soon make America self-sufficient in energy can push the cost of extracting a barrel well beyond $100.其实，伊拉克富饶的燃料资源只是整个阿拉伯世界一个缩影。数据显示，全球46%的石油探明储量（以及1/4的天然气储量）都位于19个阿拉伯国家的地下，其中储
6、量最多的那些国家更是轻而易举地就能获取石油资源。沙特和科威特最易开采石油的地方，其最低成本只需每桶3美元，这也就是为什么美国高端的水力压裂页岩油气技术人员带来了日趋激烈的竞争，而当地石油开采工人却还不以为然的原因。这种在美国人眼中的现代钻井技术可能在不久的将来，奇迹般地使美国成为一个能源自给的国家但是采用这一技术的开采成本却远远高于每桶100美元。3 The Arab worlds hydrocarbon riches are unevenly shared. Saudi Arabia alone holds the bulk of all reserves. Just eight Arab
7、countries have actually grown rich from energy exports, though some of them spectacularly so: in the tiny emirate of Qatar some 14% of households are dollar millionaires, a higher proportion than in any other country. Divided among its 250,000 citizens (the other 85% of Qatars population of 2.1m are
8、 foreign workers), the tiny emirates GDP comes to $700,000 per person. Average incomes across the Arab Gulf states are around 50 times those in Yemen, Sudan and Mauritania.不过尽管阿拉伯地区富含烃类物质，然而分布并不均匀沙特阿拉伯一国就占据了巨额储量。事实上，阿拉伯国家中只有8个通过能源出口成功致富，不过其中仍有几国十分惹眼。酋长国卡塔尔国土面积很小，却有约14%的家庭资产超过百万美元，这一比例可谓世界之最。如果把该国的国内
9、生产总值平分到25万本国国民手中，那每个人可以拿到70万美元（卡塔尔210万总人口中有85%是外国工人）。阿拉伯海湾国家的平均收入几乎是也门、苏丹和毛里塔尼亚的50倍。4 This may change. Poorer Arab states are not about to become new Qatars, but many, such as Yemen, Tunisia, Sudan and Egypt, already export oil or gas, and the lingering energy paupers are doing better too. Morocco,
10、until now completely reliant on imports, pins high hopes on offshore exploration that is just getting under way. Its Atlantic shelf shares the same promising geology that oil companies in Mauritania are already exploiting. Much of this potential lode skirts the long coast of the Western Sahara, wher
11、e sovereignty remains contested despite four decades of de facto Moroccan control. But there may be plenty in undisputed waters, too.但这一差距可能并不会永久地持续下去。一些较为贫穷的阿拉伯国家虽然并不太可能成为第二、第三个卡塔尔，但其中许多国家（如也门、突尼斯、苏丹和埃及）也已经开始出口石油天然气，而迟迟没有动作的那些富含能源的穷国也开始有所行动了。摩洛哥直到现在为止仍然完全依赖于能源进口，但她目前正在进行海上能源勘探，并对该项工程抱有很大的希望。毛里塔尼亚的石
12、油公司已经开始在其大陆架上开采能源，而摩洛哥伸向大西洋的大陆架也具有与毛里塔尼亚相似的地质条件。许多这些潜藏的矿脉都是沿着西撒哈拉长长的海岸线分布的。西撒哈拉的主权目前仍然存在争议，而摩洛哥在40年间实际控制了这一地区。不过在没有争议的水域同样也存在着丰富的潜藏矿脉。5 Huge gas fields in the eastern Mediterranean also sprawl across maritime borders. Egypt has been tapping its patch for years, with Israel following more recently. L
13、ebanon has untangled itself from internal bickering. Some day Gaza should have a share of the crowded territorys only resource aside from people. Perhaps in the future the other part of Palestine, the West Bank, will also profit from the small deposits of crude oil that Israeli firms have found unde
14、r its hills. Even Jordan may at last be able to stop begging its neighbours for fuel. If oil prices hold steady above the $100 mark around which they have fluctuated in recent years, the shale oil that sits under 60% of Jordans surface will become commercially viable.地中海东部水域的大型天然气田沿海蔓延。多年以来，埃及一直在这一水
15、域钻井采气，而最近以色列也开始不甘落后、迎头赶上。黎巴嫩已经结束了国家内部喋喋不休的争论。有朝一日，加沙也应该会在人头济济的国土范围内分得一杯羹（当地除了人以外也就剩下燃料能源了）。在巴勒斯坦的另一地区西岸，已经有以色列公司在其山地地下发现了少量原油储量，西岸可能未来也会从中受益。甚至约旦最终也可能不必再依赖于邻国的燃料供给。石油价格最近几年一直徘徊在100美元附近，如果能长期稳定在100美元水平之上的话，约旦60%国土之下蕴藏的页岩油资源将会凸显出其商业价值不过这个“如果”非常重要。6 That is a big if. In 1999 this newspaper speculated t
16、hat oil prices might collapse to $5 a barrel. Instead they soared, peaking in 2008 at $145. The worlds current mix of political instability in oil-producing zones and surging demand from Asia leads some to think that despite expanding oil production worldwide, a wobbly balance between supply and dem
17、and might be maintained. But experience suggests that high prices sustained over long periods encourage massive investment in exploration and improved yields from existing infrastructure.本报曾于1999年作出预测，油价可能会暴跌至每桶5美元。随后油价却是一路飙升，于2008年达到最高的每桶145美元。如今，产油地区政治局势动荡，亚洲地区需求急剧增长。据此，有些人认为尽管全球石油产量正在扩张，但目前供需之间的弱
18、势平衡可能很难打破。然而经验表明，长期的价格高企会刺激石油勘探的大量投资，并提升现有设施的采油能力。7 That is what happened in the 1970s, when high prices spurred energy conservation and made it cost-effective to produce in places like Alaska and the North Sea. The resulting oil-price collapse in the 1980s lasted a long time, despite rising Asian d
19、emand and supply shocks such as the eight-year war between two of the biggest exporters, Iran and Iraq. Arab producers were badly hit. GDP per person in Saudi Arabia and Libya shrank by a third and took 20 years to regain its 1981 level.20世纪70年代便是如此。在当时高油价的影响下，人们纷纷进行能源囤积，而阿拉斯加和北海的石油生产也变得有利可图起来。然而结果却
20、是之后80年代的油价崩盘；在整个阿拉伯地区，强大的资源政治和家族政治互相盘；减少补贴一定会遇到阻力，但政府有能力也必须这么去；大团结；瑟迪还给出了另外一个建议，就是阿拉伯国家应该寻求；可是如今，海湾地区外来职工中只有1/4来自阿拉伯；大开国门；两国人民已经几乎没人能够记得两国政府闭关的原因了；果却是之后80年代的油价崩盘。尽管当时亚洲需求也在上升、供应也存在冲击（如两大石油出口大国之间历经八年的“两伊战争”），但油价仍然持续下跌，阿拉伯石油生产商受到了重创。沙特阿拉伯和利比亚的人均GDP锐减了1/3，直到20年之后才重新回到了1981年的水平。8 A similar price fall to
21、day might not seem as threatening to the bigger Arab producers. Over the past decade they have racked up surpluses approaching the size of the combined GDP of all 19 Arab states, $2.9 trillion. About half of that is sitting in sovereign-wealth funds or foreign-currency reserves. But many governments
22、, wary of unrest, have also raised state spending to potentially unsustainable levels. The so-called fiscal break-even point (the oil price needed to balance exporters budgets) is currently over $80 for Saudi Arabia and $110 for Algeria, which relies on energy exports for 70% of its government reven
23、ue.不过到了今天，即使油价走势重蹈覆辙，阿拉伯大型石油生产企业也已是今非昔比了。在过去的十年间，这些大型企业所积累的净利润已经接近19个阿拉伯国家的GDP总和（2.9万亿美元）。其中约有一半躺在了主权财富基金和外汇储备之中。但是许多国家政府为了维稳所加大的国家支出，仍已到达了可能难以为继的程度。对于沙特阿拉伯而言，目前所谓的保持财政平衡的油价水平（石油出口国为平衡预算而必要的石油价格）已经超过了每桶80美元，而阿尔及利亚已经到了110美元。其中阿尔及利亚的政府收入，有70%依赖于能源出口。9 Both governments could simply cut spending, though
24、 that involves political risks. They could also try something else: raise local energy prices. Throughout the region, the combination of big resources and patriarchal politics has made a hash of economics. The Arab hydrocarbons industry as a whole generates about $750 billion a year, but nearly a th
25、ird of that, $240 billion by the IMFs estimate, is frittered away on energy subsidies for Arab consumers.这两国政府固然都可以采取削减支出的简单方法，但这却隐含着政治风险。其实，政府还可以尝试提高当地能源价格等措施。在整个阿拉伯地区，强大的资源政治和家族政治互相盘根错节，吞噬了大量经济发展潜能。阿拉伯的石油工业每年总共可以贡献7500亿美元的产能。然而据IMF的估计，其中有2400亿美元（约占1/3）浪费在了国内消费者的能源补贴上。10 In Saudi Arabia, for instan
26、ce, petrol costs under $0.20 a litre. Local consumption already eats up a quarter of Saudi oil output, and on current trends could devour all of it within 25 years. Domestic oil consumption across the Arab world last year rose by 5.2%, the highest rate in any region. In the Gulf states it has been g
27、rowing at an annual 6% since 1980.沙特阿拉伯每升汽油价格还不到0.20美元，国内能源消费量已经占到了全国石油总产量的1/4，如果按现在的趋势发展下去的话25年内沙特阿拉伯的石油出口就要被吞食了。去年整个阿拉伯地区的国内石油消费总量上升了5.2%，这一增速是世界任何其他地区无法比及的。从1980年持续至今，海湾地区国家的石油消费量甚至保持了年均6%的增速。11 Rich countries can afford this, though not indefinitely. For poor countries the subsidies have become
28、ruinous. Yemens government, for instance, spends the equivalent of 6% of its GDP on keeping fuel prices low, more than on health and education combined. Most of this goes on diesel, which feeds the water pumps that irrigate the countrys most important crop, qat, a pleasantly narcotic shrub that keep
29、s millions quiet.对于富国而言，目前应该还能应付但也不是能够永远这样下去。但对于穷国而言，如此的能源补贴已经显现出了毁灭性的恶果。就拿也门来说，该国政府为了让燃料价格维持低位，要花费相当于也门GDP6%的财力，比该国在卫生、教育上的支出总和还要多。这些补贴大多是针对柴油的补助，因为用来灌溉也门最为重要的农作物卡特的水泵需要使用柴油作为燃料（卡特是一种可以令人产生欣快感的灌木，也是一种使几百万人安定的镇静剂）。12 The cost to Egypt is just as heavy. The governments subsidy bill is $18 billion, ag
30、ain far higher than its spending on public schools and hospitals, and almost precisely matches its 11% budget deficit. That might have been fudged in the past, since most fuels were produced by state-owned firms and the cost of subsidies was implicit rather than paid in cash. But with local consumpt
31、ion growing rapidly, Egypt has lately become a net importer. Its central-bank reserves have dropped from $36 billion to $16 billion since the revolution in February 2011.埃及在能源补贴上的财政压力也很大，政府在这方面的支出达到了180亿美元（与也门一样也大大高于在公立学校和医院上的支出），几乎完全构成了该国11%的预算赤字率。这在过去可能还可以搪塞过去，因为埃及以前多数能源是由国有企业供应的，能源补贴并非通过现金而是以隐性的方
32、式进行操作。但是随着国内能源消费的快速上升，埃及最近已经成为了一个净进口国。央行的外汇储备从2011年2月启动改革时的360亿美元，已经降至160亿美元。13 The IMF reckons that in two out of three Arab countries energy subsidies account for more than 5% of GDP, whereas food subsidies in the region average only 0.7%. It is true that in places like Egypt cheap transport has e
33、ncouraged mobility and cheap power has favored investment in energy-intensive industries such as fertilisers and cement. But the benefits tend to be skewed to the owners of factories and gas-guzzlers. The IMF estimates that 50% of the energy subsidies go to the wealthiest fifth of the population in
34、Sudan and only 3% to the poorest fifth.据IMF测算，有2/3的阿拉伯国家，能源补贴与GDP的比例超过了5%，而这些国家粮食补贴与GDP的比例平均只有0.7%。当然也不可否认，在埃及这些国家，廉价的交通费用鼓励了人们出行的需求，便宜的电力价格也吸引了高耗能行业（如化肥、水泥）的投资。但是这却带来了公平问题，既得利益的通常都是工厂的厂主和使用汽油的大户。IMF估计，苏丹能源补贴中的50%流向了最富的1/5人口，而最穷1/5的却只拿到了3%。14 Rolling back the subsidies is a tricky business, but it c
35、an and must be done. Some countries, such as Jordan and Yemen, have already taken painful measures and so far survived the consequences. Libya, too, has been surprisingly bold for a country where petrol has been cheaper than water for a generation. Its current budget provides for sharply higher petr
36、ol and electricity prices and a shift in the subsidies to monthly cash transfers of about $500 per citizen. “It sounds like a lot, but this will actually save the government a ton of money,” says Faisal Gergab, chief economist at the Libyan Investment Authority.减少补贴一定会遇到阻力，但政府有能力也必须这么去做。约旦、也门等国已经采取了
37、艰难的改革举措，并且到目前为止克服了种种不适。利比亚在上一代领导人的统治下，汽油价格比水还要便宜，最近则展现出了异常的胆魄。利比亚目前的预算将会使汽油和电力价格出现大幅上涨，而将能源补贴中的一部分转作了每月向民众发放约为500美元的补助。利比亚投资管理局（Libyan Investment Authority）的首席经济学家萨菲尔?哥克布（Faisal Gergab）说：“这听起来好像很多，但却可以真的大大减轻政府的财政负担。”15 For two years the IMF has been dangling a $4.8 billion loan package in front of E
38、gypt. This could unlock billions more in multilateral and bilateral aid, but it is conditional on budget reform, which in turn depends on fixing the worsening energy muddle. Egypts next government will have to knuckle under, no matter how unpopular that may make it. And so, eventually, will countrie
39、s such as Saudi Arabia. “Now is the time to reform,” says Joe Saddi, the chairman of Booz & Co, an American consultancy with a strong base in the region. “They have the money and they have the time.”IMF两年以来一直试图以提供48亿美元的一揽子贷款计划，换取埃及推进该国的预算改革，并进一步打破埃及每况愈下的能源僵局。该计划可能还会为埃及带来双边和多边框架下的数十亿美元资金只是埃及民众并不欢迎此项计
40、划。不过即使如此，埃及的下届政府也将不得不接受这项计划。并且最终沙特阿拉伯等国也必将步此后尘。美国咨询公司波兹安（Booz & Co）在阿拉伯地区有着深厚的基础，该公司主席乔?瑟迪（Joe Saddi）表示：“改革时机已到，他们不缺钱也还不缺时间。”Among friends16 Mr Saddi has another suggestion: that Arabs should integrate their economies. This is not a new idea. Before the first world war, Mr Saddi notes, people and go
41、ods moved freely across Arab borders. The Arab League was founded in 1945 to strengthen regional ties. In the 1960s and 1970s many joint institutions were launched to exchange aid, expertise and investment among Arab states.瑟迪还给出了另外一个建议，就是阿拉伯国家应该寻求（或者说是恢复）经济一体化。瑟迪指出，在一战以前阿拉伯各国之间人口和货物都可以自由流动。成立于1945年
42、的阿拉伯联盟（Arab League）就是为了加强地区联系而建立的。到了二十世纪六七十年代，又成立了许多旨在相互援助、技术交流、跨境投资的联合机构。17 Those hopeful times saw a first big wave of migration to the Gulf. In those early years of the oil boom, its bounty was seen as best shared among brothers. Fellow Arabs received the bulk of Arab development aid and made up
43、some 72% of the Gulfs expatriate labour force. Libya, Iraq and Algeria were also important destinations for migrant workers.在那个充满希望的年代，卷起了第一股移民海湾地区的热旋风。当时还是石油价格刚刚启动的阶段，石油所带来的物质丰裕就有如兄弟之间互相分享、相互扶持。海湾地区72%的外来劳动力是阿拉伯兄弟，还有众多阿拉伯人移民前往利比亚、伊拉克、阿尔及利亚工作。当时阿拉伯世界之间的兄弟之情可堪国家友谊的典范。18 These days fellow Arabs accoun
44、t for barely a quarter of the Gulfs expat workforce, and not just because Asian workers will accept lower pay. For political reasons, Gulf monarchies have expelled large numbers of other Arabs from time to time, such as Palestinians from Kuwait and nearly a million Yemenis from Saudi Arabia in the 1
45、990s. New campaigns today, under the guise of rationalising labour markets or prosecuting people who have outstayed their visas, are targeting Shia Lebanese in Kuwait to punish Hizbullah and suspected Islamists in the United Arab Emirates. As many as 300,000 Yemenis in Saudi Arabia also risk expulsi
46、on as part of a plan to open more jobs to Saudi citizens.可是如今，海湾地区外来职工中只有1/4来自阿拉伯。当然这其中也有亚洲廉价劳动力的影响，但绝不仅于此。海湾地区的君主制国家长久以来驱离了大量非本国的阿拉伯人在20世纪90年代，大量巴勒斯坦人遭到了科威特的驱逐，而沙特阿拉伯也驱逐了近100万的也门人。类似的事情仍在继续，只不过披上了清理劳动力市场、起诉非法逗留者的外衣。为了惩罚真主党人，科威特盯上了什叶派的黎巴嫩人；阿拉伯联合酋长国则瞄上了涉嫌违法的伊斯兰教徒。沙特阿拉伯计划为国内民众创造更多的就业机会，作为计划的一部分，沙特30万也
47、门人可能会受到驱离。19 Arab borders remain more jealously guarded than those in most other parts of the world. True, countries such as Egypt, Iraq and, more grudgingly, Jordan and Lebanon have generously opened their doors to hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees. Most Arab countries still insist on visas
48、for those from elsewhere in the region, although some restrictions have been eased.尽管埃及、伊拉克、约旦和黎巴嫩（后两国态度较为暧昧）向几十万的叙利亚难民敞开了国门，但和世界其他各国相比，阿拉伯国家的边界守卫一直更为警惕。要越过阿拉伯国家之间的国境，大多仍然必须持有护照（不过也有部分限制已经解除）。Open wider大开国门20 Some irksome barriers remain. Unbelievably, the 1,000-mile-long frontier between Morocco an
49、d Algeria, countries that have similar populations and living standards and are culturally, linguistically and historically close, has been sealed for the past 19 years. Few people in either country even remember why their governments shut it (Morocco accused Algeria of involvement in a hotel bombing in Marrakech that killed two tourists). Opening it up would let poor border towns revert from their current concentration on smuggling to more le
