1、 外文翻译 原文 How Would an Appreciation of the Renminbi and Other East Asian Currencies Affect China s Exports? Material Source: http:/ Author: Willem Thorbecke and Gordon Smith* Abstract Chinas global current account surplus equaled 9%of Chinese GDP in 2006 and 11% of GDP in 2007. Many argue that a RMB
2、appreciation would help to rebalance Chinas trade. Using a panel dataset including Chinas exports to 33 countries we find that a 10% RMB appreciation would reduce ordinary exports by 12% and processed exports by less than 4%. A 10% appreciation of all other East Asian currencies would reduce process
3、ed exports by 6%.A 10% appreciation throughout the region would reduce processed exports by 10%. Since ordinary exports tend to be simple, labor-intensive goods while processed exports are sophisticated, capital-intensive goods, a generalized appreciation in East Asia would generate more expenditure
4、-switching towards US and European goods and contribute more to resolving global imbalances than an appreciation of the RMB or of other Asian currencies alone. 1. Introduction Chinas global current account surplus equaled 9% of Chinese GDP in 2006 and 11% of GDP in 2007.The Chinese government, in it
5、s 200610 five-year plan, acknowledged the need to rebalance its economy. Many have argued that an appreciation of the RMB would help to achieve this goal. How would an appreciation of the RMB affect Chinas trade? As the IMF (2005) discusses, few studies report the responsiveness of Chinas exports an
6、d imports to exchange rate changes.Mann and Plck (2005), using a dynamic panel specification and disaggregated trade flows, report that price elasticities for US imports from China are wrong-signed and that price elasticities for US exports to China are not statistically significant.Thorbecke (2006)
7、, employing Johansen MLE and dynamic OLS techniques, finds that the long-run real exchange rate coefficients for exports and imports between China and the US equal approximately unity. Cheung et al. (2007), using dynamic OLS methods, find that an appreciation of the RMB increases US exports to China
8、 but does not affect Chinas exports to the US.Marquez and Schindler (2007), using an autoregressive distributed lag model and Chinas shares in world trade, report that a 10% appreciation of the RMB would reduce Chinas share of world exports by half a percentage point and Chinas share of world import
9、s by a tenth of a percentage point. Marquez and Schindler (2007) find that disaggregating Chinese trade into ordinary trade and processing trade produces better estimates. Ordinary exports are produced primarily using domestic inputs. Processed exports are produced through intricate production and d
10、istribution networks centered in East Asian countries. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and multinational corporations (MNCs) in ASEAN export sophisticated technology-intensive intermediate goods and capital goods to China for assembly by lower-skilled workers. The finished products are then exported thr
11、oughout the world. These processed exports accounted for 53% of Chinas total exports in 2006. Because of these trading networks, Chinese value-added in processed exports is smaller than the value of intermediate goods imported from other (primarily Asian) countries. Thus one would not expect a unila
12、teral RMB revaluation against the countries purchasing final exports to affect import prices in the importing countries currencies as much as a generalized appreciation of Asian currencies against the countries purchasing final exports. Rahman and Thorbecke (2007) compare the effects on Chinas expor
13、ts of (1) a unilateral RMB appreciation and (2) a joint appreciation among supply-chain countries against countries purchasing processed exports. Results obtained using generalized method of moments techniques indicate that a joint appreciation would significantly reduce Chinas exports while a unila
14、teral appreciation would not. Rahman andThorbeckes paper, however, assumes that one can consider a change in the bilateral RMB exchange rate holding the trade-weighted exchange rate in the rest of East Asia constant.While this is possible to do mathematically, it may not be possible economically giv
15、en the fact that these variables move closely together. This paper takes a different tack. It constructs a single integrated exchange rate variable to measure changes in the relative foreign currency costs not just of Chinas value-added but of Chinas entire output of processed exports. It also assum
16、es that ordinary (nonprocessed) exports are affected by the RMB exchange rate, since they are produced primarily using domestic inputs. The results indicate that if the RMB appreciated by 10% against importing countries then ordinary exports would decline in the long run by almost 12%. The effect on
17、 processed exports would depend on what happened to exchange rates in the rest of Asia. If the RMB appreciated by 10% against importing countries and exchange rates in the rest of East Asia remained the same then processed exports would fall by 4%. If the RMB remained unchanged but the rest of East
18、Asia appreciated by 10% against countries purchasing final goods then processed exports would fall by 6%. If both the RMB and other East Asian currencies appreciated by 10% then processed exports would decline by 10%. Thus an RMB appreciation alone would primarily affect ordinary exports. These tend
19、 to be simple, labor-intensive goods such as toys and textiles. If the goal of an RMB appreciation is to resolve imbalances between China and the rest of the world (especially the US and Europe), a reduction in ordinary exports would not be helpful. A reduction in ordinary exports from China to the
20、rest of the world would be replaced by an increase in labor-intensive exports from other countries on lower rungs of the ladder of comparative advantage. An appreciation in the rest of East Asia alone would also be insufficient to cause a large decline in processed exports. A generalized appreciatio
21、n in both China and the rest of the region would be necessary to produce a large drop in the export of capital-intensive, technologically-sophisticated processed exports. Thus a generalized appreciation would be needed to switch expenditures towards US and European goods and rebalance world trade. 2
22、. Chinas Position in the Global Supply Chain East Asia is characterized by intricate production and distribution relationships, constituting part of a global triangular trading network. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and MNCs located in ASEAN produce sophisticated technology-intensive intermediate good
23、s and capital goods and ship them to China for assembly by lower-skilled workers. The finished products are then exported throughout the world. These production and distribution networks have promoted economic efficiency and helped to make East Asia as a whole (not just China) a major manufacturing
24、center. While networks are common in other parts of the world (e.g. parts and components exported from the US for assembly in Mexico), fragmentation in East Asia is particularly elaborate and well-developed. It involves complicated combinations of intra-firm trade, arms-length transactions, and outs
25、ourcing (Kimura and Ando, 2005). These networks have allowed firms to exploit comparative advantage by slicing up long production processes and allocating the production blocks created in this way throughout Asia. These tradeFDI linkages have led to productiondistribution networks in East Asia that
26、can be characterized as vertical intra-industry trade (VIIT). VIIT differs both from the exchange of final goods emphasized by traditional trade theory for vertical inter-industry trade between the North and the South (e.g. between capital goods and apparel) and for horizontal intra-industry trade b
27、etween the North and the North (e.g. between two differentiated types of automobiles). As Fukao et al. (2002) and Yi (2003) discuss, the production processes of an industry (e.g. the electronics industry) can be split into fragmented production blocks that are located in different countries and the
28、new VIIT is essentially based on differences in factor endowments in the fragmented production blocks between developing, emerging, and developed economies in the region. Kwan (2006) argues that, because of entrept trade, import data are much more accurate than export data.When Chinese firms transsh
29、ip goods through Hong Kong, the Chinese government often does not know the final destination of the goods. They thus record these goods as being exported to Hong Kong.On the other hand, when the goods arrive at their ultimate destination the importing country records the goods as coming from China.
30、Kwan thus advocates using import data from both trading partners to calculate bilateral trade balances.5 Using this approach, Chinas surplus with Europe in 2006 increased from $76 billion to $93 billion. Chinas surplus with the US increased from $153 billion to $243 billion: $243 billion far exceeds
31、 Chinas overall 2006 trade surplus of $177.5 billion. Thus, for China to rebalance its economy, it must reduce its surplus with Europe and especially with the US. 3. Conclusion Chinas export growth and penetration have been remarkable.While China was basically a closed economy 30 years ago, it is no
32、w the leading exporter to Japan, the second leading exporter to Europe, and the third leading exporter to the US. This surge in exports has been accompanied by growing trade imbalances between China and the rest of the world. Chinas global current account surplus equaled 9% of Chinese GDP in 2006 an
33、d 11% of GDP in 2007.These surpluses are primarily with the US and Europe. This paper has investigated how an appreciation of the RMB and other Asian currencies would affect Chinas exports. The results indicate that the RMB exchange rate matters more for Chinas ordinary exports than for Chinas proce
34、ssed exports.A 10% unilateral appreciation of the RMB against the countries purchasing final exports would reduce ordinary exports by almost 12% and processed exports by 4%.A 10% appreciation in other (primarily East Asian) supply-chain countries against the countries purchasing final exports withou
35、t an accompanying increase in the RMB would reduce processed exports by 6%. A 10% joint appreciation in both China and other supply-chain countries would reduce processed exports by 10%. Ordinary exports tend to be simple, labor-intensive goods while processed exports tend to be sophisticated, high-
36、tech goods.A reduction in ordinary exports from China would be replaced by an increase in labor-intensive exports from other countries on lower rungs of the ladder of comparative advantage.A reduction in processed exports, on the other hand, would switch expenditures towards US and European goods. T
37、hus, currency appreciations throughout East Asia are required to reduce Chinas massive surpluses with the US and Europe and rebalance world trade. 译文 人民币或者其他亚洲国家的货币升值是如何影响中国产品的出口？ 资料来源 : http:/ 作者： 威廉贝克，戈登史密斯 摘要 2006 年中国的全球经常账户盈余为国内生产总值（ GDP）的 9%，是 2007年国内生产总值的 （ GDP） 的 11%。很多人争辩，人民币升值有助于平衡中 国的贸易。利用
38、数据集资料 ,通过包括中国在内的 33 个出口国家，我们发现人民币升值 10%将降低普通出口的 12%和加工品的出口不少于 4%。所有其他亚洲国家货币升值 10%将会减少加工贸易的 6%。人民币升值 10%，整个亚洲地区会减少加工品出口的 10%。从而普通加工产品趋向于更简单，而劳动密集型产品出口将会更精细复杂，更会是资本密集型产品。亚洲地区的广义升值会产生更多高附加值的产品相对于美国及欧洲的货物，更有助于解决全球经济的不平衡，而不是仅仅人民币或者其他亚洲货币的升值呼声。 1 简介 2006 年中国的全球经常账户盈 余为国内生产总值（ GDP）的 9%，是 2007年国内生产总值的（ GDP）
39、的 11%。中国政府 ,在 2006-2010 年这份五年计划 ,承认需要调整其经济实力。许多人争辩人民币升值将有助于达成这一目标。人民币升值的又将如何影响到中国的贸易？ 根据国际货币基金组织 (2005)的讨论 ,一些研究报告反应出了中国的出口和进口汇率变化。曼恩和帕克 (2005),使用动态规格数据库和分析贸易流量 ,报告说 ,美国从中国进口商品的价格弹性是无法确定的，而美国对中国输出的商品是无统计意义的。邵柏克 (2006), 用 约翰森母机 MLE 和技术动 态 OLS 技术 , 认为长期的实际汇率与中国的出口和美国的进口率系数约等于统一。张五常等人（ 2007 年），使用动态 OLS
40、 方法，发现人民币升值的增加美国对中国的出口 ,但不影响到中国的出口到美国。辛德勒，马奎斯 (2007),使用一个自回归分布滞后模型和中国股票市场在世界贸易中 ,报告说 ,人民币升值 10%将降低中国占世界出口的 0.5 个百分点 ,中国占世界进口 10%个百分点。 马奎斯，辛德勒 (2007)发现把中国贸易分解为普通贸易、加工贸易产生更好的评估。主要生产使用普通出口国内的投入。加工品的出口产生复杂的生产和经销网 络通过集中在东亚国家。日本、韩国、台湾和跨国公司的技术对东盟出口的货物中间产品和中国雇佣低技能工人总资本。成品然后出口世界各地。这些加工品的出口占中国出口总额百分之五十三的 2006
41、 年的三倍。 因为这些交易网络 ,中国增值后的加工品的出口小于中间产品的价值进口(主要是亚洲地区 )的国家。因此 ,人们不指望有单侧人民币升值对国家出口采购最终影响的进口价格进口国的币值高达名义升值对亚洲货币相对于其他国家购买最终出口。 拉赫曼，邵柏克 (2007)比较影响中国出口的单方面的人民币升值步伐和共同升值在供应链国家对国家采购加工 品的出口。利用广义的方法进行了试验 ,结果表明 ,联合时刻技术显著地降低升值 ,中国的出口而单方面的升值。拉赫曼，邵柏克的论文表示，假设你可以考虑换双方的人民币汇率举办贸易加权汇率，虽然这是可能的 ,用数学方法是不可能考虑到经济这些密切因素的。 结果表明
42、,如果人民币升值 10%会攻击到进口国，从长远来看 ,减少将近12%。加工品的出口的影响取决于汇率发生了什么事会在其它亚洲地区。如果人民币升值 10%将攻击进口国而在其他东亚的汇率保持不变，然后加工品的出口将会下跌 4%。如果人民币保持不变 ,而其余 10%东亚对国家购买成品然后加工品的出口将下降 6%。如果人民币和其他东亚货币升值 10%然后加工品的出口就会下降 10%。 因此 ,人民币升值的主要就将影响一般出口，初级产品、劳动密集型商品如玩具和纺织品。如果人民币升值的目标是为解决中国和世界其他地区 (特别是美国和欧洲 )之间的不平衡 ,而对减少普通的出口将不会有帮助。减少普通的出口从中国出
43、口到世界的其它地方的普通产品减少，来自其他国家的社会等级较低有比较优势的劳动密集型产品增加。 在对其他东亚地区也就不足导致大量加工品出口的减少。中国和其他的该地区将有必要批量生产出资 本密集型的出口，降低复杂的加工品的出口。因此需要广义升值来对美国及欧洲开关支出商品和平衡世界贸易。 2 中国的立场在全球供应链 东亚的特点是生产和分配关系错综复杂 ,构成的一部分的一个全球性三角贸易网络。日本、韩国、台湾、与跨国公司技术密集型制造复杂的东盟位于中间产品和资本品和它们运往中国雇佣低技能工人总成。成品然后出口世界各地。本生产配送网络促进了经济效率和帮助使东亚全部 (不仅是中国 )主要生产中心。 而普通
44、的世界的其他地方 (例如零部件和美国出口的会中 ,碎片墨西哥 )在东亚特别精细 ,发展得很好。它涉及到复杂的组合 贸易 ,手臂联储会的交易外包(木村和安藤 ,2005) 这些网络允许公司利用比较优势的生产工序和长时间的攻击分配以这种方式形成生产块整个亚洲。这些 trade-FDI 联系已经导致亚洲东部之生产配送网络特征为垂直产业内贸易 (垂直产业内贸易 )。两方面的不同垂直产业内贸易交换成品传统贸易理论强调对垂直产业内贸易南方和北方之间 (如在资本品和服饰 )与水平产业内贸易和北部之间的北 (例如在两个分化类型的汽车 )。作为 Fukao孙俐。 (2002)和易建联 (2003)讨论 ,生产过
45、程 (例如一个行业。电子工业 )可以被分成支离破碎的石块 ,是生产位于不同的国家和新垂直产业内贸易是实质上是基于不同的生产要素禀赋块碎片 ,新兴发展中国家之间 ,和发达国家在该地区。 关颖杉 (2006)认为 ,因为转口贸易、进口数据比出口数据更加精确当中国公司经香港转运货物 ,中国政府经常不知道最终目的地的货物。因此 ,作为记录这些货物出口香港在另一方面 ,当在货物到达他们的最终目的地 ,记录货物进口国来自中国。关颖杉因此提倡采用进口的数据来自贸易伙伴 ,计算双边贸易，使用这个方法 ,中国的贸易顺差在 2006 年增加与欧洲的价值 7600 亿至 93 亿美元。因此 ,对中国经济调整 ,它必
46、须减少与 欧洲的贸易顺差 ,特别是美国。 3 结论 中国的出口增长和渗透令人难以置信而中国基本上就是个闭关自守经济30 年前 ,现在主要出口日本、第二大出口商欧洲 ,第三大出口国到美国。 结果表明 ,人民币汇率问题为中国的普通的出口比中国加工品的出口 10%的单方面的升值人民币对国家出口采购决赛普通的出口减少将近 12%及其加工品的出口 4%人民币升值 10%,其它 (主要是东亚 )供应链国家对国家出口采购最后不伴随增加在人民币会减少加工品的出口 6%。 10%的联合对中国和其他供应链国家将减少加工品的出口 10%。 普通的出口会更简单、劳动密 集型的物品而加工品的出口往往是复杂、高科技产品在普通减少出口 ,中国将会被增加来自其他国家的劳动密集型出口社会等级阶梯上较低的比较优势降低加工品的出口 ,另一方面 ,将开关支出对美国和欧洲的货物。因此 ,在东亚货币瞭解需要减少中国巨额的顺差与美国和欧洲 ,同时平衡世界贸易。
