1、 外文翻译 原文 Developing counter chaos marketing strategies: the key to survival and success in modern chaotic markets Material: Cog gin College of Business Author: Cos Kun Sam Li Chaos theory has been in existence for sometime. However it has not been well published in marketing literature. Conditions t
2、hat are creating chaotic shock waves are very real in both global and national markets. At least partially, chaos theorists have explored the disorderliness of markets but they have primarily looked at long term implications of this disorderliness. However, chaotic markets need immediate solutions.
3、The general orientation of chaos theory may guide marketing decision maker. Marketing executives, furthermore, have to face these adversities and must learn to manage them. This situation will call for the creation of a counter chaos culture in the organization and developing a counter chaos marketi
4、ng strategy that is proactive. Such a strategy goes beyond just survival. It transforms the conditions that are creating chaos into new market opportunities. Since conditions or occurrences that are creating chaotic shock waves in the market place are becoming more and more common place, it is extre
5、mely critical that firms develop counter chaos strategies for survival and profit. There is almost no end to this list. All of these developments have caused or are causing chaos in their respective markets. If one were to describe the features of existing markets, both global and national, the foll
6、owing would describe them the best: uncertainty, plurality, change and sudden shock waves (Murphy 1996). Or, in Schumpeters words, these developments represent “creative destruction”. Thus, companies must learn to manage crises. Crises however in modern markets are almost daily occurrences. In this
7、article they are referred to as chaotic influences since they are extremely powerful and far reaching. Additionally, in this era of high tech, disruptive technologies are creating shock waves even for well-managed companies (Christensen 2003) which exacerbate the conditions that are described by Mur
8、phy (1996). Ducker posits that a “disciplines basic assumptions about reality determine 1 what it focuses on”, but the perception of these realities may differ dramatically. Strategic planning thus far has been based on explicitly or implicitly acknowledged existence of linear relationships. Traditi
9、onal thinking has been such that linear relationships inevitably lead to some advanced level of equilibrium. Hence, classical, neoclassical even Keynesian economics are all based on the assumption that an illusive concept called equilibrium exists and it is the goal. If such equilibrium is experienc
10、ed then there will be no immediate tendency to change and hence there will not be chaotic shocks in the market place. Under such circumstances almost all developments in markets will be explained by a series of linear relationships. Such relationships, however, assume that the future is a continuati
11、on of the present and progress will be based on creative increment as opposed to creative radicalism (Candy and Telis 1998). The leaders, managers and other decision makers in the past knowingly or unknowingly have all their decisions based on these proposed linear relationships that are all associa
12、ted with the possible presence of equilibrium. Such an orientation does not allow provisions for chaos. However, the modern markets and industries, in recent times, have been functioning under the conditions of disequilibrium. In other words they are pursuing a path of creative radicalism. This auth
13、or believes that this disequilibrium is accelerating. New developments and innovations in modern times are rather dramatic and are causing managers to think in terms of disequilibrium. Developing and maintaining a learning organization means that the firm is well equipped to generate critical inform
14、ation for its decision making activity. All organizations learn as they survive, however the key characteristic of a learning organization is activity. It proactively searches, generates and disseminates information for critical decision areas within its ranks. posits that if innovations were to be
15、adopted successfully by an organization, these innovations must be complementary to other supporting innovations so that the larger system can be reintegrated. In order to accomplish this, the new information technologies will be placed in the organization. In other words the organization must becom
16、e a learning organization in order that technologies and organizational structures could coexist, evolve and reach to higher plateaus. Learning organizations can cope with chaotic influences created by the market system. Many interconnected computer networks can generate and disseminate much data fo
17、r managers everywhere. Sam Li (1996) proposed development of a strategic information system which supports the needed 2 information base of the learning organization. Indeed, without having a learning organization, the firm is not likely to become powerfully proactive. Bifurcation can be considered
18、a tool of counter chaos culture in the sense that in order to cope with chaos sometimes extreme and totally opposing decision alternatives need to be identified. Companies may face a situation caused by chaos where abandoning the whole product line or doubling it could be two very viable alternative
19、s. The Internet, for instance, can easily take over the telecommunications industry or can just have a shocking impact on the software industry. It can create much different software packages and can distribute them efficiently. These are dramatically opposing activities to what is happening in the
20、markets. When dynamic markets meet unpredictable consumers, bifurcation of the market becomes natural. The chaos-savvy marketer may have to bifurcate to cope with these changes (Silverstein 2006). Apple can go from computers to iPods. Generating renewal among individuals, teams, the whole organizati
21、on and its presence in the market place is essential for the corporation to counteract shock waves. Spirited resurgence of the firm in the marketplace cannot be left to luck or to sheer accident. The firm must be fully prepared to renew its strengths, its products and services, its intellectual capi
22、tal and above all its competitive advantage in the presence of chaotic conditions. Only a few of the old vertical computer companies survived in the newly emerged horizontal computer industry by adapting themselves to a completely new and different industry structure (Grove 1997). This is due to the
23、 fact that those companies had a strategic information system that is well used. The changing conditions can be so extreme that the firm may need a complete transformation. This may mean a large variety of alternatives among which are: a complete change of target markets, a complete change in produc
24、t lines, moving in the direction of being a manufacturer to a total importer and the like. Intel moved to selling processors to computer users as opposed to computer makers. Disruptive technologies move fast. They are cheaper, they produce better or different products and they primarily impact the b
25、est companies that do not feel an immediate need to change. Slow moving companies in fast moving industries become very vulnerable. In the long run these technologies may become main stream and become vulnerable to other disruptive technologies. As disruptive technologies emerge, they send shock wav
26、es to current industries. This is primarily because these industries do 3 not display slowly progressing increment, instead, they practice radicalism. If radical product innovation is going on in the industry, the firm must be proactive enough to kill some of its existing products in favor of some n
27、ew and radical products. Such cannibalization can be very profitable in addition to being necessary (Grove 1997). Since the nature and the intensity of the chaos causing force is not totally predictable or known, it is necessary for the firm to improvise and react positively to even the most unexpec
28、ted market condition (Sam Li 2007). Although many chaos theorists explore how organizations should or do adapt to chaotic turbulences in their environments, they all stop there. In other words, they advocate a reactive posture. It is maintained in this article that proactive marketing strategies nee
29、d to go beyond adaptation to chaotic conditions. Not only must such counter chaos strategies try to influence the shock waves in the market by helping the firm to survive, but they must also convert these shock waves into new opportunities. Those companies with proactive marketing strategies must be
30、 powerful enough to understand chaotic changes early on and convert them into new opportunities. The following indicates how proactive orientation has kept ahead of chaotic forces. Realizing that Americans were working long hours and did not want to spend the time on cooking and going to restaurants
31、 all the time thus Dominos emerged. Because Americans wanted to spend time in their home relaxing and still wanted to see good movies, the multibillion-dollar home theatre industry came into existence. As Americans became more time conscious, they did not want to wait for the conventional ovens to c
32、ook everything, hence, they chose micro-wave ovens. As income distribution in the society started changing, a large group of Americans wanted to have Wal-Mart prices in a more stylistic setting, and Target stores chain emerged. This list is not complete and it could be expanded indefinitely. It is n
33、ot 196 Sam Li Developing counter chaos marketing strategies necessary to elaborate on the point that each one of these innovations sent shock waves to the traditional businesses in their respective industries. But it is clear that if the marketing decision makers can detect latent demand of markets,
34、 they can be extremely successful in that they can initiate their own chaos. The companies in these cases were at the edge of chaos and foresaw what was happening early enough to interpret these trends into 4 major opportunities. It is this kind of proactive marketing that enables the firm not only
35、to face or influence the chaos but also to take advantage of it. The claim that companies must become as pointed out by, is simply not an adequate stance. It is maintained here that CASs can enable firms to survive in chaos but this is only a reactive posture. The position that is taken here is that
36、 it is necessary for the firm that is at the edge of chaos not to be just reactive but proactive. It certainly creates greater risk and more resources to be proactive than be reactive, however if the firm has the critical ability to detect the early hints of a forthcoming chaos and convert it into m
37、arket opportunities and immediately act on them, the chances for super success are also great. 译文 Developing counter chaos marketing strategies: the key to survival and success in modern chaotic markets 资料来源 ： Cog gin College of Business 作者： Cos Kun Sam Li 混沌理论已经存在了一段时间。 但是，还没有得到很好的宣传营销资料。在现实 的 全球和国
38、内市场 ， 正在创造条件 是非常混乱的冲击波。 至少 ，混沌理论界探讨了市场无序 性 ，但他们主要 造成了 无序的长远影响。然而，混 沌市场需要立即解决。混沌理论的大方向可以指导营销决策者 、 营销管理人员 。 此外，要面对这些逆境，必须学会管理他们。这种情况将在组织文化的创造发展 下制定 营销策略。 这种战略不仅 于生存。 它转化的条件，正在创造新的 机会 进入混乱 的市场 。 由于发生的条件或正在建立在市场上混乱的冲击波正变得越来越普遍，利润战略是企业生存和发展的 关键 。 所有这些事态 的 发展已经造成各自市场 的 混乱。 墨菲描述现有市场的特点，在全球 经济发展下 ， 主要因素有 ：不
39、确定性，多元化，改变和突然的震动波。或者， 用 熊彼特的话来说，这些事态发展表示创造性破坏。 因此 ，公司必须学会管理危机。然而，现代市场危机几乎每天发生。在这篇文章中，他们被称为强大和混乱的深远影响。 此外，在这种高科技，颠覆性技术时代的冲击波 下 ，创造良好的管理 是增加 公司 效益 的条件。 德鲁克 做了 一个 关于现实 学科的基本假设，确定它的重点，但这些现实的5 看法可能会有所不同。战略规划迄今已公认的线性关系的存在。 传统的思想一直 呈 线性关系，这样必然导致一些先进水平的 流失 。 因此，古典，新古典经济学的凯恩斯主义甚至都是基于这样的假设，一个虚幻的概念，叫做均衡存在。 如果这
40、种平衡是有经验的则不会 出现 立即改变的趋势，因此在市场上 也 不会出现混乱的冲击。 在这种情况下，几乎所有市场的发展将被解释为一系列的线性关系。 这种关系，但是假设未来是现在的延续 ， 进步将是渐进的创造性，而不是创造性的激进主义 。 领导者，管理者和其他决策者过去有意或无意，对这些被所有可能存在的平衡关系，提出线性相关决策。然而， 近年来，在 现代市场 的条件下，许多 行业已经运作 得很不平衡 。换言之，他们所追求的 是 一种创造性激进主义的道路 ， 这种不平衡正在加速。新的发展和近代创新是相当戏剧性的。 发展和维持一个学习型组织意味着该公司是装备精良，以生成其决策活动。所有组织学习， 是
41、 因为他们 要 生存 。 然而，学习型组织的主要特点是积极性。它能主动搜索，制作和传播其队伍内重要决策领域的信息。纽曼（ 1997）假定，如果要通过创新都是由一个组织成功，这些创新必须补充其他配套的创新，使较大的系统可以重返社会。为了实现这一目标，新的信息技术将被放置在该组织。换言之，组织必须成为一个以技术和结构共存 的形态 ，达到更高的高原学习型组织。学习型组织能够应付市场制度造成的混乱影响。许多计算机互联网络可以为管理者 传播 数据 ，变得 随处可见。 战略信息系统，支持学习型组织所需要的信息 ，在此 基础 上 发展。事实上，如果没有有一个学习型组织，企业是不太可能 变得 主动。 在 某种
42、 意义上说，分支可以考虑 为 用来 应付极端混乱 。 完全对立，有时决策方案 需要确定和利用。公司可能面临 以下的 情况 ，因 造成的混乱 而 放弃了整个产品线 ， 可能是两个非常可行的替代方案。互联网，可以轻松地在电信行业或软件产业 上造成 令人震惊的影响。它可以创造出不同的软件包，可以高效率地加以分配。这些活动极大地反对的是在市场 上 发生。 为了 适应变幻莫测的市场消费者，市场的分歧变得自然。混乱中，精明的营销可能要分叉，以应付这些变化（西尔弗斯坦 2006 年）。 苹果可以 从电脑到 个人之间的重建，团队 是一 个组织，它的存在是必不可少的 ， 来抵消冲击。该公司在市场复苏 情况下不要
43、出现碰 运气或纯粹意外 心理 。企业必须做好充分准备， 根据 自己的优势， 更新 产品和 完善 服务 体系 。只有垂直的旧电脑公司适应一个全新的的行业结构 ，才会 在新出现的计算机行业 中提高 水平。 由于这一事实， 这些公司进行了战略信息系统 整合 ，运行良好。 不断变化的条件下会达到极端，该公司可能需要一个完整的改造。这可能要用到 各 种替代方案，其中包括：一个完整的目标市场的变化， 产品线的彻底6 转变 。英特尔处理器转移到 电脑 经销商 ，而不是电脑制造商 。 采取突破性技术 ，价格 便宜， 生产出更好的或不同的产品，它们主要影响到 公司 的营销 。滞销在快速发展 产业的公司 里 变得
44、非常脆弱。 从长远来看这些技术可能成为主流，成为容易受到其他破坏性技术。由于破坏性技术的出现，他们把当前的行业冲击波。这主要是因为这些行业不显示进度缓慢渐进，相反，他们练习的激进主义。 如果产品创新是 在 不断激进的行业上， 那 企业必须具有前瞻性， 这样 足以杀死一些激进的青睐 ， 其现有的一些产品。这种抢食是必要的盈利 手段 。 由于性质和造成混乱 强度是不完全可预测的，在最意想不到的市场条件 下，有必要对公司作出积 极反应即兴发挥。 虽然许多混乱理论家探讨组织如何适应 ， 还是应该在混乱动荡的环境中停在那里。换句话说，他们主张被动的姿态。这是在本文中保持积极主动的营销战略，而且 必须超越
45、混乱状态去适应 这个市场 。 不仅要这样 ，还要 试图影响 和 帮助公司能够在市场中的冲击波 下生存 ，但他们也必须转换成新的机会。 在 积极的营销 战略下 ，这些公司必须强大到足以理解早期变化 中 的混乱，并转换成新的机会。如何保持积极的方向 来防御 混沌力量。 美国人工作时间长，不想花 时间 烹调 ，宁愿 去餐厅。因为美国人想花时间在家里放松，希望看到好电影， 为 数十亿美元的家庭 影院行业的诞生 创造了条件 。 随着美国人时间意识 的改变 ，他们不希望 用 传统的烤炉 来 做饭 ，因此，他们选择了微波炉。在社会上 ， 随着收入分配开始改变，一大群的美国人希望有更多的风格 ， 沃尔玛的价格
46、 变动 和 Target 连锁店应运而生。 这个清单是不完整的，它可以 继续 扩大下去。这不是发展营销战略的必要 。详细说明一点，每一个在各自行业 的 创新对传统业务发出 了 冲击 。但很明显，如果营销决策者能够检测潜在的市场需求，他们可以是非常成功的，他们可以启动自己的 市场 。 在这些 方 案中 ， 公司都在混乱 中，也可以 预见 发生了什么事及 分析 这些趋势 ，成 为重大机遇。正是这种积极主动的营销方式，使企业不仅要面对混乱 ， 而且要好好利用这个优势。在这里，它是维持会计准则可以使企业生存陷入一片混乱，但这只是一个被动的姿态。这里的立场是，它是 一个 必要的公司，在混沌的边缘是不能只是被动而是主动的。这当然造成更大的风险和更多的资源 ， 反应积极，但该公司有能力 实行 关键检测 ，使 混沌 变得清晰 ，并转换成市场机会， 立即对他们采取行动， 成功的机会也很大。
