1、 外文翻译 原文 Globalization and Fisheries: Welfare Implications of Export Trade in Asia Material Source: Global Change: Impacts on Water and food Security Water Resources Development and Management Author: Roehlano M. Briones, Madan Dey, and Mahfuzuddin Ahmed Abstract: Global market integration has accel
2、erated in recent decades, and with it the supply of exported fish has shifted from developed to developing countries. Fish is also important for the diets and livelihoods of the poor in developing countries. Hence, concerns have been raised about the impact of export-oriented fisheries on the poor.
3、The first concern is that, on the demand side, export-oriented fisheries are diverting domestic production from meeting domestic food requirements. We examine this objection from the viewpoint of the nine top fish producers in developing Asia, based on supply and demand projections from a multi-mark
4、et equilibrium model of the fish sector. Over the next 15 years, fish consumption per capita is projected to rise in most of these countries, even as export prices are expected to climb. On the other hand, a decline in export price growth may cause a minor to dramatic fall in net export growth, with
5、 only a minimal increase in domestic consumption growth. Hence, imposing disincentives or restrictions on exports may forfeit large gains on the supply side, with negligible gains in domestic consumption. The second concern is that, on the supply-side, benefits from export-oriented fisheries are rea
6、ped mostly by big, commercial producers. It is true that poor fishers, fish farmers, and traditional processors are marginalized in the export chain, due to the technical and financial requirements of meeting modern quality and food safety standards. However, rather than restrict globalization, the
7、response should be to make the export chain more inclusive, by rationalizing regulatory standards in developed countries, as well as by organizing and enabling small-scale enterprises in developing countries to compete against large-scale farms or vertically integrated processors. 1. Introduction Gl
8、obal markets have become more closely integrated over the past few decades. As global exports increase, global supply is shifting from developed to developing countries. Exports from developing countries have risen steadily by about 8% per year from 1976 to 2002. Half of all fish exports now origina
9、te from these countries. Fisheries (broadly defined to include aquaculture) are also an important source of livelihoods and food for poor households in many low-income countries. Fishing is a primary occupation for nearly 40 million people worldwide; this represents only a portion of the total of 20
10、0 million individuals who are dependent on fisheries. Poverty incidence among poor fishing communities (based on the dollar- a-day threshold) has been estimated to range from 16% in Latin America to 46% in Africa, with Asia (accounting for the bulk of fish producers worldwide) at 26% Fish also provi
11、des a valuable source of protein, micronutrients, minerals, and essential fatty acids for people in ma ny developing countries. It provides at least one-fifth of animal protein intake per capita fo r more than 2.6 billion people. This share reaches one-half or more fo r some poor countries such as B
12、angladesh, Cambodia, the Congo, Gambia, Ghana, Equatorial Guinea, Indonesia, Sierra Leone, Sri Lanka, and small-island developing states. The impact of globalization on fisheries is multifaceted; addressing the full range of these impacts is beyond the scope of this chapter. Given the importance of
13、fisheries in developing countries, particularly for poor households, this chapter focuses on the impact of trade on household welfare with particular emphasis on the export side of trade. Two major concerns regarding globalization are based on the possible links between fish exports and food securit
14、y, and between fish exports and equity. First, fish exports have diverted food from domestic consumption to satisfy foreign consumption, thus undermining food security. Second, rising trade in fish is supposedly marked by a lopsided distribution of benefits, favoring large-scale producers over small
15、-scale, poorer fish producers. 2. Globalization and Fish: Trends and Issues 2.1 Overview of Global Trade in Fisheries Global fish trade has been expanding at a remarkable pace in the last few decades. Both the value and volume of world exports have been rising since 1976, with export values increasi
16、ng sharply starting from the mid-1980s. Fishery exports now stand at nearly US$60 billion, far in excess of traditional crop exports from developing countries, such as sugar, banana, rubber, coffee, and cocoa. Developing countries are becoming increasingly prominent participants in global trade. The
17、 share of developing countries in world fish exports increased from 37% in 1976 to nearly 50% in 2002. The composition of developing-country exports has shown striking changes over past 20 years. Earlier exports were dominated by crustaceans, pelages, and other types of fish. While pelages continue
18、to be important and crustaceans (mostly shrimp) continue to rank highest among exports, miscellaneous marine fish have increased in overall importance as have freshwater fish. Globalization of fisheries has resulted from a number of factors, including lower transaction costs, improved airfreight fac
19、ilities, and the formation of supply and distribution systems, culminating in the supermarket chain. Trade policy has also been instrumental. First, food safety standards are becoming more transparent and realistic. Standards are harmonized under the agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) mea
20、sures under the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the Codex Aliment Arius standards of the FAO for food. Cumbersome and arbitrary inspection procedures have given way to a process-based certification system, the Hazards Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP) system. Second, tariffs on fisher
21、y products in the main importing countries have been greatly reduced under the framework of the WTO and other arrangements. As a result, the weighted average of tariffs on fis h imports in developed countries stands at only 4.5%. However, this low average conceals some remaining tariff walls and esc
22、alation patterns against processed products. Similarly, tariffs in developing countries have been declining, though at a much slower rate. Despite lingering barriers to trade, the momentum towards globalization will probably continue into the near future. FAO projections forecast increasing fish exp
23、orts from developing countries, from 7.2 million tons in 1999 to 10.1 million tons by 2015. This is accompanied by increasing demand for fish: annual average growth in per capita consumption for developing countries is expected to reach1.3% per annum, above the global average figure of 0.8%. Fish pr
24、oduction from developing countries is also expected to grow (at 2.7% per year), but by only half the growth rate achieved in the previous 20 years According to a different set of projections, net exports of food fish are expected to undergo continuous expansion in China, India, and Latin America. Ho
25、wever, net exports are expected to fall (or net imports to rise) in other developing regions, such as Southeast Asia, Other South Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. Because of this, total food fish exports from developing countries are expected to fall by 30% from 1997 to 2020. 2.2 Potential Impacts of E
26、xport-Oriented Fisheries on Food Security and Livelihoods The globalization process is often viewed as harmful to the poor; see. The globalization of fisheries is no exception. With respect to food security, concerns have been raised that “when it is quite remunerative to export, it may become more
27、attractive to sell abroad than on the domestic market depriving the local populations of important sources of proteins”. However, one should consider the flipside: a broader conceptualization of food security may include the availability and affordability of food from both domestic and foreign sourc
28、es. Hence, selling goods to the export market in order to increase purchasing power and procure food from other countries may actually contribute to food security. If repression of exports fails to generate sufficient increases in consumption, then the net effect on food security is ambiguous at bes
29、t. This issue can be analyzed through quantitative measurement of the net impacts of exports on food security. A direct approach, however, is problematic, given data constraints, measurement problems, and the simultaneous influence of many related factors. An alternative tool would be simulation ana
30、lysis, in which consumption, production, and trade, are represented within a computable economic model. Increasing export-orientation is then treated as an alternative scenario, or a modeling “experiment,” and the resulting changes in consumption are attributed to export-orientation. An advantage of
31、 this approach is the representation of myriad relationships and determinants simultaneously within a supply and demand system, while still yielding numerical results. Increasing trade has also exposed domestic producers to more intense global competition. This has allegedly favored commercialized f
32、arming and fishing, conducted on a large scale. Hence, concerns have been raised about the adverse impacts of globalization on the livelihoods of small fish producers, who are generally poor. There is unfortunately a dearth of quantitative or empirical work relating trade with equity. Therefore, we
33、review the conceptual issues, combined with some stylizations about trade and industry consolidation, to assess the distribution of benefits from fisheries trade. 3. Trade and Food Security 3.1 The Asia Fish Model The Asia Fish model introduces another innovation in allowing fish types for demand an
34、d supply to differ initially; with a matching scheme to harmonize the fish types and enforce model closure. In developing the Asia Fish model, a major preliminary step was to estimate demand and supply elastic ties for each fish type and country from available data. Where the estimated elastic ties
35、are implausible or contribute to implausible results, they are replaced by well-behaved elastic ties, either from other countries in the Asia Fish model, from other values in the literature, or from expert judgment. Exogenous model variables include the index of technological change, urban and rural
36、 populations, income, input prices, non-fish commodity prices, and foreign prices. These exogenous variables are projected for the period 20052015. China. Consumption growth is fairly rapid, particularly for Tilapia. Considering slow population growth in China, this translates to increasing consumpt
37、ion per capita. Imports and exports are also growing. a one percentage point shock in export price growth has a minor impact on exports and imports, and the impact on consumption is very slight. Philippines. Consumption growth in the Philippines is quite small, due to mixed changes in consumption gr
38、owth across fish types, that is, declines for processed fish and others, and growth for the remaining types, especially for milkfish and tilapia. Imports decline across the board, while export growth is weak. The negative export price shock makes a serious dent in overall exports, turning a small po
39、sitive growth into a small contraction over the 15-year period. However, the positive impact on consumption is small in proportion to the original 1% shock, and the effect seems to be concentrated on processed fish, shells, and other fish. Sri Lanka. Projected growth is considerable for consumption,
40、 imports, and exports, and even faster than the optimistic outlook for China. Only other marine consumption is expected to post a decline; the highest consumption growth is expected for processed fish, followed by freshwater fish and pelages. To summarize: as expected, a decline in export price does
41、 reduce exports and usually increases domestic consumption. However, the effects on consumption are small to imperceptible, relative to the original shock. What seems more obvious is the negative impact of an export price slowdown on export growth. Therefore, concerns about food security are not com
42、pelling enough to resist the trend of increasing global integration. 4. Trade and Equity 4.1 Export Orientation and the Commercialization of Fisheries The next issue we address is the impact of export-oriented fisheries on equity. The globalization of fisheries, in common with the globalization of a
43、griculture in general, involves highly perishable commodities. About half of agricultural exports from developing countries are in fresh form, requiring specialized production, packing, and handling, to meet quality and safety concerns. Both, exports in fresh or processed form require expensive mode
44、rn technologies with large capital outlays. Producers and traditional fish processors in developing countries are clearly at a disadvantage. Geographically extended supply chains linking dispersed small producers face higher costs of assuring product quality. Small processors often employ traditiona
45、l methods, which fall short of modern standards of hygienic preparation. As a result, small producers and traditional processors are marginalized in the export market. Furthermore, safety standards are typically enforced by state regulations in the importing countries. For WTO members this falls und
46、er the Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) measures, which is regulated by the Codex Aliment Arius. The Codex mandates the HACCP certification system. These safety standards are actually the more significant form of trade barriers facing developing-country exporters. present estimates of t
47、he additional processing costs due to HACCP compliance. Due to prior economies of scale, the additional investment implies a greater increase in unit costs for smaller processors. 4.2 The New Trading Order and Business Organization Recently, the organizational dimension of the new trading order in a
48、griculture. Export-oriented agribusiness is associated with “industrialized agriculture,” where size and standardization have become important factors for lowering costs, and producing goods that fit consumer needs and processors specifications. The agro-industrial system favors negotiated coordinat
49、ion along the food supply chain, rather than the traditional spot market of competitive agriculture. Understanding how small producers fare under the agro-industrialized system requires an analysis of business organization and contract choice. The “new institutional economics” provides a set of concepts useful for the analysis. These include transaction costs, and the economics of information and choice under uncertainty. The central thesis of this theoretical approach is that organizational and contractual forms are institutional arrangements to deal with transaction costs and as
