1、 外文翻译 原文 Effects of Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries Material Source: Library and information center the university zone of Ningbo Author: Dietrich Kebschull Consideration of Secondary Effects The choice of an alternative position entails in itself different results and thus widely
2、diverging assessments. Of importance is further the extent of the effects taken into consideration, for an analysis can be confined to the investment and the attendant effects on the enterprise in question or attempt to take all macro- economically relevant additional effects through forward and bac
3、kward linkages into account. What difference this makes to the assessment can be easily demonstrated by taking the balance of payments effects as an example. Depending on the purpose of the analysis, these may be - economically correctly - identified in three ways: 1. The monetary policy is interest
4、ed chiefly in the capital flows directly connected with the investments. The identification of the balance of payments effects is in this case confined to a comparison of the imports of capital for the investment and the transfer of profits back to the foreign country in subsequent years. In some ca
5、ses payments for royalties, license fees, etc., and estimates of clandestine profit transfers, e. g. through group-internal overpricing by parent or subsidiary, are also taken into account. 2. A significantly different result may be obtained in an investigation designed to establish the micro- econo
6、mic effects - perhaps analogous to a cost- benefit calculation. In this case it is necessary to consider the imports and exports attributable to the enterprise in the analysed period in addition to the capital flows. 3. Finally, a comprehensive macro-economic assessment must take in all the farther-
7、reaching effects - e. g., on production and employment in upstream and downstream areas, displacement of competitors, etc. A complex analysis is really required for an assessment of these various effects but in practice all three procedural methods are commonly applied. It is peculiar that the probe
8、 into capital flows which has the least evidential value is the most widely used method. A methodological difficulty in the capital flow analysis is that it is in practice hardly ever possible to relate the capital imports involved in an investment to the sum total of attributable profit transfers.
9、Usually the two flows are for this reason simply compared over a period of several years. This rough and ready method - inflationary effects for instance and the difference between sales- and purchases-oriented investments are completely ignored - leads fairly regularly to the result that the total
10、profit transfers exceed the inflow of direct investment capital into developing countries. Empirical Results Bos, Sanders and Secchi calculated the outflow of capital from all developing countries together in the 1965-1969 period at US $10.3 bn; the inflowing capital (incl. reinvested profits) amoun
11、ted to $11,978 mn and the outflowing profits to $ 22,256 mn . Matthies arrived for Mexico at a deficit of US $ 2.5 bn in the period from 1940 to 1975 . Koopmann put the net outflow from Colombia in 1950-1975 at US $ 42 mn , and Bode and MLtler-Debus computed for Malaysia a deficit of US $110 mn in 1
12、962-1970. Presuming that these investments would also have been made by domestic investors - and were thus merely a substitute for indigenous investments - the simple capital flow analysis may suggest that foreign direct investments in developing countries should be regarded as a burden on the host
13、countries. UNCTAD studies by Meddlman, Lall, Lacey and Seagrave for Jamaica and Kenya for instance however show that the replacement premise is far from realistic. Nevertheless it has to be noted that the “discovery“ by limited means - the methods of flow analysis - of comparatively high capital out
14、flows is one of the major reasons why a negative view is taken of the value of direct investments in the Third World under development aspects. When other transfer payments and the imports of plant, equipment and other goods are brought into the equation, the result is often even more glaring. If ad
15、ditional effects associated with the investment are taken into account, the ensuing result is however entirely different. On the realistic assumption that direct investments are capable of replacing at least part of formerly required imports and/or enabling additional exports to be made by virtue of
16、 the production now taking place in the country the balance of payments effects are almost the opposite of those suggested by the capital flow analysis. In this case all empirical analyses for the determination of the extent of the financial and goods flows point to substantial positive effects. On
17、this presupposition of a more additive investment Koopmann arrived for Colombia in 1966-1973 at a figure of US $ 2.6 bn for import substitution and US $ 286 mn for increased exports due to foreign investments. This means that if all imported advance inputs, the transfer of profits and royalties and
18、the ne t capital inflow are taken into account the net benefit to the balance of payments works out at approximately US $ 2.8 bn . In Mexico also all deficit effects are greatly overcompensated by the benefit from import substitution. In 1970 the import substitution by foreign enterprises in the man
19、ufacturing industry amounted to over US $1.2 bn or 70 % of the imports of industrial goods into the country TM. In Malaysia the direct investments are owing to the availability of tin and rubber chiefly export-oriented. For the period of investigations, from 1966 to 1970, the foreign currency benefi
20、t due to foreign investments has been calculated at US $ 3 bn . The gain from US direct investments to the balance of payments of Latin American countries in the years from 1965 to 1968 has been put at about US $ 8.5 bn a year of which about $ 4.5 bn are attributed to additional exports and $ 4.0 bn
21、 to substitution of imports . In spite of differing computing methods and difficulties in the collation of data it may thus be stated that the positive effects of foreign investments on the balance of paymens by virtue of import substitution and/or export promotion 17 taken a5 a whole more than comp
22、ensate for the deficitary transfer effects. This view is shared by the United Nations the studies of which are based on the work of experts subscribing to various schools of thought. Their verdict is summed up as follows: “When all the direct effects on the balance of payments accounts are taken int
23、o consideration, the net result in the developing countries is usually positive . The actual conditions in the developing countries especially in the “threshold“ countries which have already made greater economic advances suggest that the assumption, inferred here, that direct investments are entire
24、ly additional is in this absolute form unrealistic. The mentioned positive results should be revised downwards according to the percentage rate of actual additional production, import substitution and export expansion. This is however difficult because really plausible and convincing studies about t
25、his highly intricate complex of questions do not exist. Because of this one can only say that the undeniably negative effect of profit transfers is mitigated and may be reversed by export expansion and import substitution. The consequential effects of direct investments have not been taken into cons
26、ideration in this context. There are only a few estimates available about the balance of payments effects induced by the price and income mechanism and connected adjustment processes in the economy as a whole. Direct investments may for instance become the pivotal point for the establishment and exp
27、ansion of accessory industries or as big enterprises displace small indigenous business rivals and their accessory suppliers. Here - as in the alternative situation described earlier - the result depends on basically contrary assumptions on the effect of investments. 译文 对外直接投资对发展中国家的影响 资料来源 :宁波大学园区图
28、书馆 作者： Dietrich Kebschull 二次效应 的考虑 对 另一个位置的选择本身需要不同的结果 ,因此 有了 广泛扩散的评价。 重要的是从各方面进一步考虑影响的程度，一个分析 ,可以限制在投资和服务员对企业的问题或试图把所有宏观-经济相关额外的特效通过向前和向后联系的考虑。一国际收支平衡的影响为例，很容易就可以证明这对评估产生了什么样的影响。 根据分析的目的 ，大概主要体现在以下三方面 是否经济，是否合适，是否被认同： 1、 货币政策感兴趣的主要是直接与投资有关的资金 流量。在这种情况下，识别国际收支平衡的影响只局限于 比较进口的资本投资和 在接下来几年转移回到国外投资国的利润。
29、在某些情况下，特许权使用费，执照费的支付等，还有被母公司或子公司这样的团队过高索价的私下秘密转移利润的估算都包括在内。 2、 在一项旨在建立微观经济效应（类似于一个成本效应计算）的调查中，将会得到显著不同的结果。在这种情况下，有必要考虑除了资金流量以外的由于企业在分析期间所进出口的货物。 3、 最后 ,综合宏观经济评估必须 包括所有的长远到达效应，比如在生产和就业的上下游地区，竞争者的取代等。 对这些多方面效应的评估 的确需要一个复杂的分析，但是在实践中，所有这三个程序上的方法经常被应用。非常奇怪的是，几乎没有证据价值的对于资本流动的探究，确实目前被最广泛应用的方法。 在资本流动分析中有一个方
30、法上的困难，因为在实践中几乎不可能涉及一项投资中可分配利润转移的总量的进口资本部分。通常，由于这个原因，这两个资本流量（出口资本和进口资本）只是在一个以几年为期限的时间段内被简单地对比。这个简陋的方法，比如通货膨胀效应，普通销售和以购买为导向的投资之间的不同点都被完全忽略了，相当有规律地导致了一个结果：利润转移总量超过了在发展中国家 直接投资资本的流入量。 实证结果 Bos, Sanders 和 Secchi 估算出在 1965-1969 期间所有发展中国家的资本外流量， 10.3亿美元，资本流入总量（包括循环再投资资本）有 11,978 百万美元，利润流出量有 22,256百万美元。 Mat
31、thies 在赤字为 2.5 亿美元 1940 1975 时期到达墨西哥。 假设 如果 这些投资也可以由国内投资者 来投资，而仅仅是 代替本土投资 ， 简单的资本流量分析可能 预示着在发展中国家的对外直接头将会被认为是东道国的一个负担。Meddlman,， Lall， Lacey 和 Seagrave 为牙买加和肯尼亚所做的联合国贸易暨发展会议的研究 表明 替代 的前提是远离现实 的 。 然而 必须注意的是 ，用局限的方法所做的探索，对较高资本外流量信息流分析的方法是 被持负面看法的 在正在开发的 第三世界国家 进行 直接投资价值的 观点被采纳的主要原因之一。 当其他转移支付、进口的厂房、设备
32、和其他货物放到方程 ,结果往往是更明显。 如果将与投资有关的附加效应考虑在内，接着发生的结果将会是截然不同。从现实假设，直接投资至少能够代替以前需要进口中的一部分， 或可进一步出口 ,目前生产由于发生在国家国际收支平衡效果几乎对面的那些建议通 过资本流分析。 既然这样，所有与资金和货物流程度有关的实证分析都表明了实质性的积极的影响。 在一个更附加投资的前提下， 1966-1973 期间， Koopmann 到达哥伦比亚为了一个由于 外商投资热潮 带来的出口增加额，价值为 2.6 亿美元的进口替代和 286 美元。这就意味着 ,如果 将 所有进口推进输入、转让利润和有效的资本净流入 考虑在内，国
33、际贸易顺差将会接近 2.8 亿美元。 在墨西哥，所有私自效应也都会从进口替代中得到大量的补偿。 1970 年，由国外企业在制造行业所带来的进口替代总额已经超过 1.2 亿美元， 进口产品的 70%的工 业商品运进国内 TM。 在马来西亚，直接投资主要归功于以罐头 和橡胶 为 主要以出口 导向的实用性。从1966 到 1970 的调查期间，由于国外投资带来的外币效益价值已经有 3 亿。 我们所得直接投资国际收支平衡的拉美国家处于从 1965 年至 1968 年 ,多年来一直处于 8.5 亿美元左右 ,其中约一年 45 亿美元 ,都是由于美元 ,额外的出口 4.0 430 亿美元的替代进口。 发展
34、中国家尤其是在 刚加入发展中国家行列并推动了经济发展的国家的实际情况预示着那关于直接投资是绝对额外的事情的假设在这专制形式下是不切实际的。上面提到的积极的结果应该根据实际额外产量的百分率、 进口替代和出口扩张 重新修订。但是 ,这很艰难 ,因为真的可信 ,令人信服的这方面的研究这一复杂的复杂的问题不存在。因为这一只能说 ,无可辩驳的利润转移负面影响是可能会扭转的减轻 ,并出口扩张和进口替代。 本文没有考虑关于直接投资的重要影响。 只有少数的估计数字国际收支平衡影响价格和收入所产生的调整过程机理和连接在整个经济中。 直接投资可能比如成为最重要 的点附件的建立和发展的行业或大企业取代小土著商业的竞争对手和专用配套供应商。在这里 ,在另一种情形 ,结果早些时候基本上取决于相反的影响假设投资。
