1、 外文翻译 原文 The Value of the Renminbi Material Source: China Business Review Author: Gelb, Catherine The value of the renminbi (RMB) against major currencies has become a contentious issue in political circles in recent months. Chinas effective peg to the US dollar has led to a decline of the RMB excha
2、nge rate against other major currencies, particularly the euro and the yen. European, Japanese, and even US companies and their government representatives have accused China of purposefully undervaluing the RMB to make already competitively priced Chinese exports even cheaper in overseas markets. Ma
3、ny China-based businesspeople are familiar with this debate. The question is, are the critics right? And if so, what, if anything, are PRC officials likely to do? China Facts: Exchange rate: 8.276-8.28 to $1 Current account surplus, 2002: $35.4 billion Current account surplus, January-June 2003: $4.
4、5 billion Foreign exchange reserves, 2002: $286.4 billion Foreign exchange reserves, January-June 2003: $346.5 billion Foreign direct investment (utilized), 2002: $50.7 billion Foreign direct investment (utilized), January-June 2003: $30.3 billion Foreign-invested enterprises share of Chinas total e
5、xports in 2002: 52 percent RMB basics Large inflows of foreign funds and large export volumes are putting upward pressure on the value of the RMB. This seems hard to dispute. The reason for this pressure is that first, more foreigners want to buy goods and services valued in RMB, so they need to con
6、vert foreign currency to RMB to make their purchases. Second, more RMB holders are selling things for dollars and needing to convert the dollars back to RMB. This demand for RMB drives up its value relative to other currencies even the US dollar, to which it is tied. The PRC government is concerned
7、about the value of the RMB against the dollar and other currencies for several reasons, though not the same ones that concern foreign firms or the politicians whose ears they bend. One reason is that a higher RMB could hurt PRC-based exporters, at least in theory, by making their goods more expensiv
8、e overseas relative to goods denominated in other currencies. Since exports are crucially important to Chinas economic growth, the government is loath to make life harder for exporters. (Of course, if the RMB were to rise against other currencies, imports used as inputs for finished exports would be
9、come cheaper, easing the pain to some extent and also undermining the argument that a higher RMB would help foreign-made goods competing against Chinese-made goods.) Another is that China is just emerging from years of deflation. Deflation, which is defined as a fall in the general price level, supp
10、resses consumption and can cause an economy to stagnate. A higher RMB could push China back into deflation because less RMB would be needed to buy things in dollars the price of the dollar (and dollar-denominated goods) would have fallen. Thus, allowing the RMB to rise against the dollar would hurt
11、important sectors of the PRC economy unless the PRC government somehow eases the upward pressure by printing more RMB, to satisfy the demand and maintain its current exchange rate. The money supply has indeed grown by as much as 20 percent this year. Bank lending has also surged (thanks to low inter
12、est rates among other policies in place to cure deflation), fueling a worrisome rise in property investment. Another downside of this monetary expansion is that excessive growth in the money supply can turn a borderline deflationary environment into an inflationary one. In fully flexible exchange ra
13、te regimes, the value of a currency against others adjusts until the supply-demand equilibrium is re-established. Calls are increasing for China to move to a more flexible exchange rate regime. According to Jun Ma of Deutsche Bank, PRC officials are aware of the advantages of a more flexible system,
14、 in the form of an easing of inflationary pressure and a possible fall in excessive bank lending and of its disadvantages. Without a healthy financial system, moving from a fixed to a fully floating exchange rate system can be destabilizing because a floating currency is exposed to international cur
15、rency fluctuations. Chinas banks are weak and the countrys legal and regulatory systems are arguably too immature to police and defend the financial markets adequately. China already allows free conversion for current account (trade) transactions. A fully floating exchange rate, analysts point out,
16、can exist even if China maintains controls on the inflow and outflow of (non-trade, i.e. financial) capital. But the currency will still react to global supply and demand and be a potential target of speculation. Economists have studied the effectiveness of capital controls in countries like Chile t
17、hat maintained both capital controls and a floating exchange rate during the Asian financial crisis and its aftermath. The jury is out on whether such controls are sustainable over the long term. Misplaced blame Meanwhile, it is hard to argue that the RMBs recent decline against other currencies is
18、the primary reason that the world is buying Chinese-made goods, for several reasons: Chinas trade balance is moderating in 2003, even as the currency falls, which supports the possibility that the value of the RMB is neither the sole reason for Chinas trade surplus nor the sole reason for the US tra
19、de deficit with China. Companies are setting up factories in China because of the countrys large and inexpensive labor pool, its continual improvements in infrastructure and support services for business, and its emerging consumer base. Chinas exports were strong even in the months after the Asian f
20、inancial crisis in the late 1990s, when the RMB strengthened against many currencies that depreciated during the crisis. Chinas middle road There has been no indication that the Chinese government intends to move to a new, fully flexible exchange rate regime anytime soon. The Chinese learned the les
21、son of the Asian crisis that flexible exchange rates in economies with weak financial sectors and inadequate legal regimes leave economies exposed to international financial meltdowns. China may seek a middle road to soak up the excess RMB that is, as of August 2003, already flooding the economy and
22、 risking turning deflation into inflation. The alternatives facing China that are mentioned often in the press are to widen the band around which the RMB fluctuates and to let it settle within a slightly higher range, or to undertake a one-time revaluation and then proceed as before. The consensus a
23、mong analysts seems to be that despite pro forma public statements by the PRC premier and the heads of the Peoples Bank of China and Ministry of Finance that the Chinese government has no intention of altering the exchange rate regime, these same PRC officials will allow the band around which the RM
24、B fluctuates to widen. Of course, PRC officials have been promising greater flexibility for years. What may be different this time is the realization that more flexibility might actually help the government manage monetary policy while answering overseas critics. The government is also reportedly co
25、nsidering allowing PRC banks to issue bonds denominated in dollars and to permit PRC companies to hold and transact business in foreign currency. The government may also establish a qualified domestic institutional investor system to encourage investment in financial markets. If China decides to wid
26、en the RMB trading band, at least one estimate put the end rate at 8.15 to $1. As others have pointed out, such a cautious move to widen the band slightly or undertake a one-time revaluation may not be enough to head off the calls for protection in the United States and elsewhere from manufacturing
27、firms facing the intractable structural problems that prevent them from competing against Chinese goods. 译文 人 民币的价值 资料来源 : 中国商业评论 ， 第五期 作者： 盖尔布、 凯瑟琳 最近几个月里，在政治界，人民币与主要货币的汇率问题引发了争议。中国对美元有效汇率的措施已经导致了人民币对其他主要货币汇率的下降，尤其是欧元和日元。欧洲、日本、甚至美国公司及其政府代表指责中国故意低估人民币价值，从而使其出口到海外市场的产品在价格上更具竞争优势。对于这一争论，很多中国的企业家都很熟悉。问
28、题是，这些批评是否正确？如果正确 ,中国官员应该怎么做 ？ 中国的事实情况： 汇率： 8.276 8.28 兑换 1 美元 国际收支经常项目顺差， 2002 年： 354 亿美元 国际收支经常项目顺差， 2003 年 1 月到 6 月： 45 亿美元 外汇储备美元， 2002 年 :286.4 亿美元 外汇美元储备， 2003 年 1 月到 6 月年： 346.5 亿美元 利用外商直接投资美元， 2002 年： 50.7 亿美元 利用外商直接投资， 2003 年 1 月到 6 月：亿美元 2002 年外商投资企业占中国出口总额的份额： 52% 人民币基本要素 国外资源 的大量流入和大量的出口，
29、人民币价值压力的不断上升。这似乎是很难争论的 。 这种压力原因有，第一，更多的外国 人想购买有人民币价值的货物和服务，因此，他们为了能够购买需要把外国货币兑换成人民币。第二，更多的人民币持有人卖东西换成美元 ,然后把美元兑成人民币。 这种需求使得人民币的价值相对于其他货币，甚至美元，紧密的联系在一起。中国政府关注人民币的价值对美元和其他货币原因的有几个，当然外国的公司或政客的关注是不一样的。 其中一个原因就是较高人民币可能会影响了中国的基本出口，至少在理论上，使得其商品在海外相对于其他货币的货物更昂贵。由于出口对于中国的经济增长是至关重要，所以中国政府是不愿意为难出口商们。 (当然，如果相对于
30、其他货币而言人民币的升值，使作为投入用于成品出口的进口将变得更便宜、在某种程度上减轻负担 ,同样也破灭了这样的一个争论，更高的人民币将有助于外国商品对中国商品的竞争。 ) 另一个原因是 ,中国刚从多年的通货紧缩中新兴起来。通货紧缩 ,它的定义是指价格总水平下降，抑制消费，可能导致经济停滞不前。较高的人民币可能回推动中国重新陷入通货紧缩，因为用较少的人民币，会用美元买到相应的同等商品 -使得美元的价格 (和以美元计价的商品 )将会下降。 因此 ,让人民币兑美元的汇率上升将损害中国重要经济部门的利益，除非中国政府印刷更多人民币来缓解某种程度上人民币升值的压力，以满足需求 ,并保持其当前的汇率。今年
31、货币供应量确实增加了高达 20%。银行的贷款也大幅攀升 (由于低利率政策，在其他地方众多政策中的实施更好的缓减通货紧缩 )，从而刺激了令人担忧的房地产投资的上升。另一个负面的影响，是货币供应量的过快 增 长这样一个边缘环境问题成为通货紧缩。 在充分灵活的汇率制度下，一种货币价值对其他国家货币的调整，直至供求平衡的重新建立。呼吁增加对中国的调整到一个更灵活的汇率制度 。根据德意志银行的一员马军声明，中国的政府官员都意识到一个更灵活的汇率制度的优势，在通胀压力缓和形式下，可能减少银行过度贷款。和它的缺点，没有一个健全的金融制度，从一个固定的汇率制度到完全浮动汇率制度是很不稳定的，因为浮动汇率会受到
32、国际汇率波动的影响。中国银行的薄弱 ,国家的法律和监管制度都可能不太成熟，难以充分监督和维护金融市场。 中国已允许经常帐户 (贸易 )交易的自由兑换。一个完全的浮动汇率制度，分析专家指出，即使中国可以存在保持对流入和流出 (非贸易 ,即金融 )资本的控制。 但货币仍应对全球供应和需求，并成为 一个潜在的目标的投机活动的猜测。 经济学家的有效性研究资本管制措施在许多国家，如智利，在亚洲金融危机及其余波下，仍保持资本管制和实行浮动汇率。陪审团不在管制对这种是否是可持续发展。 错位的责备 与此同时，我们很难认为人民币兑其他货币近期下跌的主要理由是 ,全世界都在抢购中国制造的商品，有以下几个原因： 中
33、国的贸易平衡是在 2003 年开始放缓，甚至货币的下跌，它支持人民币价值的可能性，既非中国贸易盈余的唯一原因，也不是中国与美国贸易赤字的唯一理由。 公司在中国设立工厂，因为中国有大量的而且廉价的劳动力，基 础设施的不断改善和商业服务的支持，和新兴的消费基地。 即使在十九世纪 90 年代末亚洲金融危机后的几个月，中国出口依然强劲，人民币的加强相对于许多其他货币在这场危机中贬值。 中国的中间道路 目前没有迹象表明，中国政府打算在短期转换到一个新的、充分灵活的汇率制度。中国吸取亚洲金融危机的教训，这种灵活的汇率经济体制薄弱的金融领域和缺乏足够的法律制度将国际经济金融危机中暴露出来。 中国可能寻求中间
34、道路，来吸收过多的人民币，即截止 2003 年 8 月，已经泛滥的经济和通货紧缩冒着变成通货膨胀。中国面临的选择 ,经常提到的 新闻往往围绕扩宽了的人民币波动和让它在解决一系列略高，或进行一次性升值，然后继续和先前一样。分析师们的共识是，尽管中华人们共和国总理、中国人民银行和财政部的负责人公开声明，中国政府无意改变汇率制度，这些中国官员将允许人民币波动的扩大。 当然，中国官员多年来希望有更大的灵活性。在回答海外评论家的时候指出这次可能不同的是实现更大的灵活性，实际上可能有助于政府货币政策的管理。 据报道，政府还考虑允许国内银行发行美元债券，并允许中国公司持有和办理外国货币的业务。政府也将建立一个合格的境内机构投资者制度，鼓励金融 市场上的投资。如果中国决定扩大人民币交易区间，至少有一个估计的利率在 8.15 兑 1 美元。正如其他人指出，这种谨慎的做法，扩大交易带 -或进行一次性的升值，可能没有足够的防止呼吁保护从在美国和其他地方生产企业面临棘手的结构性问题，从而防止他们对中国产品的竞争。
