1、 1 外文翻译 2 原文 Services Trade and Growth Material Source : The World Bank Author: Bernard Hoekman Aaditya Mattoo Introduction One of the stylized facts of economic development is that the share of services in GDP and employment rises as per capita income increases. In the lowest-income countries, serv
2、ices generate some 35 percent of GDP. This rises to over 70 percent of national income and employment in OECD countries. The expansion in the services-intensity of economies is driven by a number of factors. Standard explanations revolve around both demand and supply side factors, including income e
3、lasticities of demand for services that exceed one, limited scope for labor productivity improvements in the supply of consumer (final product) services, and the rise in demand for coordination and intermediation services associated with structural change (shift out of subsistence agriculture, urban
4、ization, changes in business practices) and the expansion of the extent of the market, as well as incentives for firms and government bodies to spin off service activities to specialized providers (outsourcing). Advances in information and communication technologies are increasingly permitting cross
5、-border-disembodied-trade in labor-intensive services, accelerating the growth of services activities. The competitiveness of firms in open economies is increasingly determined by access to low-cost and high-quality producer services telecommunications, transport and distribution services, financial
6、 intermediation, etc. As well as the efficiency and effectiveness of public governance and institutions. The widely remarked upon processes variously called global outsourcing, fragmentation, production sharing, and offshoring depend on access to, and the cost and quality of, services public and pri
7、vate. While the expanding importance of services in the economy has certainly been noticed, services do not figure prominently in research on economic growth and development. The same is true in the international trade literature, although a rapidly increasing amount of research has focused on the l
8、inkages between services trade, service-related policies and economic performance. The aim of this paper is to 3 provide a brief review of some of the recent literature on these subjects, focusing primarily on services that are inputs into production. The plan of the paper is as follows. Section 1 b
9、riefly discusses the role of services in economic growth. Section 2 presents some stylized facts regarding global trends in trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) in services, and the policies affecting trade. Section 3 reviews a number of channels through which openness to trade in services may
10、increase productivity of an economy and summarizes the findings of some of the empirical literature that focuses on these channels, at the level of the economy as a whole, industries and the firm. Section 4 discusses a number of the policy implications suggested by the extant research. Section 5 con
11、cludes. Services and Growth Economic theory postulates that aggregate growth is a function of increases in the quantity and productivity of capital and labor inputs, with long run (steady state) growth being driven by technological progress. Growth theory accords no special role to services activiti
12、es, with the exception of financial services. The seminal work here is Goldsmith (1969), which stressed the role of financial services in channeling investment funds to their most productive uses, thereby promoting growth of output and incomes. Subsequent work has shown that financial services can a
13、ffect growth through enhanced capital accumulation and/or technical innovation. In a survey of the relevant literature, Levine (1997) identifies five major functions that financial systems perform in reducing transactions costs and improving the allocation of real resources: facilitating the trading
14、 of risk, allocating capital to productive uses, monitoring managers, mobilizing savings through the use of innovative financial instruments and easing the exchange of goods and services. Intuitively, other services activities also have a powerful influence on growth. Low cost and high quality telec
15、ommunications will generate economy-wide benefits, as the communications network is a transport mechanism for information services and other products that can be digitized. Telecommunications are crucial to the dissemination and diffusion of knowledge the spread of the Internet and the dynamism that
16、 that has lent to economies around the world is telling testimony to the importance of telecommunications services. Similarly, transport services affect the cost of shipping goods and movement of workers within and between countries. Business services such as accounting, engineering, consulting and
17、legal services 4 reduce transaction costs associated with the operation of financial markets and the enforcement of contracts, and are a channel through which business process innovations are transmitted across firms in an industry or across industries. Retail and wholesale distribution services are
18、 a vital link between producers and consumers, with the margins that apply in the provision of such services influencing the competitiveness of firms on both the local and international markets. Health and education services are key inputs into and determinants of the stock and growth of human capit
19、al . Services are very heterogeneous, and span a wide range of economic activities. Conceptually, this diversity masks a fundamental function that many services perform in relation to overall economic growth, they are inputs into production. One dimension of this input function is that services faci
20、litate transactions through space (transport, telecommunications) or time (financial services) (Melvin, 1989). Another dimension is that services are frequently direct inputs into economic activities, and thus determinants of the productivity of the fundamental factors of production labor and capita
21、l that generate knowledge, goods and other services. Education, R more 6 important is total factor productivity (TFP) growth. This TFP growth is not observed for the Euro-land countries in their sample. A decomposition by industry suggests that much of the differential is due to variation in busines
22、s services performance across countries. The obvious question raised by this finding is what explains the divergence in performance (i.e., what determines services productivity), and to what extent policy variables such as regulation, limits on entry into or scaling up of business services, investme
23、nt restrictions, etc. affect services performance. More specifically, a question this paper focuses on is how trade and thus trade policy affects services performance. For example, insofar as all of the OECD countries in the Inklaar et al. sample are similar as regards openness to foreign competitio
24、n, domestic regulatory policies that segment markets may be the major determinant of diverging productivity performance (Nicoletti, 2001; Nicoletti and Scarpetta, 2003). But if there are sectors where there is very little international competition, trade policy may also play a significant role. The
25、focus of this paper is on the broad question of what is known about the effects of policies that restrict international competition. Entry by foreign firms is in principle a powerful potential channel for technology diffusion as well as competitive pressure that will reduce prices and/or raise quali
26、ty of services. Often such entry will (have to) take the form of FDI. What is the effect on the overall economys growth performance of greater international competition? What are the channels for this growth at the industry and firm level? Before turning to these questions, we first briefly review t
27、rends in the pattern and composition of global trade and investment in services. 译文 服务贸易和增长 资料来源：世界银行 作者：伯纳德克曼 阿迪特亚马图 简介 经济发展的典型事实之一是，服务占 GDP 的比重随着人均收入和就业率的上升而增加。在收入最低的国家，服务占 35%的 GDP。在经合组织国家收入和就业达到 70%。服务强度扩张受到诸多因素的影响，主要围绕两个标准解释需7 求和供给方面的因素，包括需求服务的弹性收入，在有限的范围内劳动生产率不断改进给消费者提供（最终产品）服务，并在需求上升和协调具有结构变化
28、的相关中介服务（移出生存农业，城市化，改变经营手法）和扩张市场，以及鼓励企业和政府机构剥离服务至（外包）专业供应商活动。先进的信息和通信技术越来越允许跨国的脱离现实劳动密集型的贸易服务，加速发展服务。 开放经济中企业的竞争力越来越取决于获得低成本，高质量的生产性服务业 -电讯，运输及分销服务，金融中介等。有效 的公共管理也是一样。广泛表示支持各种所谓的全球外包，破碎，生产共享和离岸外包，成本和高品质服务，公共和私人的。 虽然服务扩大在经济中的重要性已被关注，但是服务并不意味着经济的增长和发展。这在很多研究国际贸易的文献中出现，尽管越来越多的研究迅速集中在服务贸易之间的联系，服务相关的政策和经济
29、业绩之间的联系上。本文的目的是提供一个关于这些问题的一些最新文献的简要回顾，重点集中在把服务投入到生产中。 本文的计划如下：第 1节，简要讨论服务于经济增长的作用。第 2节，提出了一些关于全球程式化的事实在贸易和服务的外 国直接投资 （ FDI） 的趋势，政策影响。第 3节，回顾一些渠道，开放服务贸易可能会增加经济的生产力，并总结在整个经济和企业层面的实证文献。第 4节，讨论了大量优秀研究中提出的策略。第 5节，总结。 服务与增长 经济理论假设总量增长是指在生产率、生产力和劳动力的投入方面的一个增长功能，技术进步推动长期（稳态）的增长。增长理论不符合服务活动，金融服务除外。这是戈德史密斯（ 1
30、969年）首次提出，他强调金融服务在大多数生产中投入投资基金，从而提高产出和收入。随后的研究表明，金融服务可以通过提高资本积累技术创新影响 经济增长。在对相关文献的调查，莱文（ 1997年）确定了五个主要功能是在减少金融系统执行交易的成本，提高实际资源的分配：包括减轻贸易风险，分配生产资本，监督管理，通过创新金融工具的使用调动储蓄，灵活货物和服务的交换。直观上，其他服务活动也对经济增长有强大的影响力。低成本，高品质的无线通讯有利于整个经济的发展，就像通信网络是信息服务和其他产品的传输机制，可以数字化。无线通讯对于知识的传播有至关重要作用，互联网和动力学的扩大，借助世界经济的发展证明了无线通讯服
31、务的重要性。同样，运输服务影响国家间的货物运输成本和劳 动力流动。商业服务如会计，工程，咨询和法律服务减少了金融市场运作和合同执行的交易成本，是一个通过公司或者行业内部业务流程创新的通道。零售及批发分销8 服务是生产者和消费者之间的一个重要环节，此类服务产生的利润影响了包括本地和国际市场的公司竞争力。卫生和教育服务的投入是市场和人力资本投入的关键和决定性因素。 服务是很不平衡的，其经济活动的跨度范围很广的。从概念上讲，这种多样性掩盖了其基本功能，很多相关服务贯穿整体经济增长。这个投入功能的尺度是通过空间（运输交易，电信）或时间（金融服务）从而实现服务促进交易（梅尔文， 1989）。另一尺度是服
32、务往往直接投入经济活动，因此决定生产率的根本生产要素是劳动和资本，包括创造知识，商品和其他服务。教育，研发和卫生服务是人力资本投入的典型。 弗朗索瓦 （ 1990） 指出，中介服务的增长是整体经济增长和发展的一个重要的决定因素，因为它们使专业化发生。随着企业规模的增大和劳动力 的专业化，需要更多的部门专门用于协调和组织公司的核心业务。这额外的部门的部分外包给外部服务提供商。“生产者服务 ” 供给作为这一进程的一部分提供的不只是区别的投入生产。他们在调整生产模式中生产出更多不同的产品和实现规模经济扮演着重要基础作用。相关的组织创新和“物流 ” 的扩张（网络）服务单产提高生产率，这反过来应该影响经
33、济的发展。 增长绩效 服务的种类和质量越大，服务专业化相关的价格减少越大，对购买服务企业（户）的生产力（福利）的影响越大。生产力加大了服务的作用是因为投入与文献长期关注的形成对比，一个不断扩大的服 务行业也许（一定）与经济增长率的下滑相关。假定服务中提高生产力的潜力有限，意味着随着时间推移，服务部门的雇佣成本与其他相关因素相比一定会提高，使经济发展潜力减小直至“停滞 ” （鲍莫尔， 1967）。鲍莫尔假定，人们认识到即使服务行业的生产力增长有限，但是一旦服务经常投入，服务行业就会扩大。奥尔顿 （ 2001） 表明，停滞服务的投入增加会导致整体经济的增长，因为更多的（生产）企业服务外包在非停滞的
34、行业需要一个整体的因素增加产量和再分配生产力。 许多服务行业都不是停滞不前，拥有有经验的劳动力和全要素生产率的增长。这意味 着对影响服务行业日益增长的经济份额和人均收入的增长的关注较少，在早期的文学作品中提出。虽然测量对许多服务行业生产率测度有困难（因为它往往是难以界定的一个服务部门的实际产出），实证分析有证据表明，许多服务部门已登记有意义的生产力的增长。特里普利特和博斯沃思 （ 2004） ，计算出美国的服务行业范围内的劳动生产率或多要素生产率，表明美国生产力增长对服务行业有深远的意义。生产力分布和金融服务的增长带动了 1995年后美国劳动生产率的整体扩张，包括信息技术和管理创新，诸如外包和
35、专业化，以及9 零售业的新概念如“大盒子 ” 商店模 式，帮助和促进生产力的转化。 服务业生产率的业绩在各个国家有显著的不同。 Inklaar, Timmer 和 van Ark（ 2006） 表明生产率水平上的总体差异和七个主要经合组织 （ OECD） 国家的增长率的差异主要归因于特定服务部门而不是商品生产行业。也就是说，后者的生产力水平的增长率比生产者和商业服务更相似。 1995年后高服务的生产率增长，如美国，加拿大和英国等国家在此期间仅部分 被 ICT 投资解释过。更重要的是全要素生产率 （ TFP） 增长。全要素生产率增长在欧洲国家没有被关注。行业的分解表明差异的存在是由于各国商业 服务表现形式的不同。 最明显的问题提出了这一发现是如何解释分歧性能（即是什么决定服务生产力），以及在何种程度上的政策调节，限制进入或扩大商业服务，投资限制等。更具体地说，本文重点介绍的是如何使贸易和贸易政策影响服务的性能。例如，在所有的经济合作与发展组织国家。开放类似的国外竞争，国内管制政策，细分市场也许是发散生产率业绩的决定因素（尼科莱蒂， 2001；尼科莱蒂和 斯卡彼得， 2003） 。但是，如果有些行业很少有国际竞争，贸易政策也可发挥重要作用。
