1、 外文翻译 原文 Mergers and acquisitions Waiting for a wave Material Source:The Economist Author:Steve Harmon During the Great Depression, Americas protectionist Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930 raised tariffs on more than 900 goods. A series of retaliatory actions by other countries followed. The effect on global
2、 commerce was devastating. In the three years to June 1932, the volume of world trade shrank by over a quarter. No wonder, then, that the spectre of the worst recession since the Depression led many to fear another descent into protectionism and a similar decline in trade. At first, the recession di
3、d hit trade hard. Global GDP fell by 0.6% in 2009 while the volume of world exports dropped by 12.2%. But whereas the Depression saw trade decline for at least four years, this time the rebound has been quick, and sharp. By May this year, emerging-economy members of the G20 were importing and export
4、ing around 10% more than their pre-crisis peaks (see chart). Rich-world trade has recovered from the trough too, though it has not yet made up all the ground lost since the credit crunch began. Trade has not been devastated by the raft of protectionist actions taken during the downturn. According to
5、 the World Bank, the rise in tariffs and anti-dumping duties explains less than one-fiftieth of the collapse in world trade during the recession. For the most part, the fall in trade reflected a drop in demand. There is even some evidence that activity has rebalanced from the lopsided trade pattern
6、that existed just before the crisis. Then, the share of emerging-world imports that came from rich countries had been on a steadily declining path. But now demand from emerging economies is helping to prop up rich-world exports to a larger degree than is commonly realised. According to IMF figures,
7、of nine emerging markets in the G20, seven got a higher share of their imports from rich countries in 2009 than they did a year earlier. Just 59% of Chinas imports came from rich countries in 2008, but this rose sharply to 66% in 2009. India obtained 42% of its imports from rich countries in 2008, b
8、ut last year this rose to 47%. That mutually beneficial pattern points to the importance of both rich and poor countries keeping their markets open, so that growth in one part of the world can help stimulate a recovery elsewhere. Yet the pressure to protect domestic industry and jobs will only grow
9、as unemployment remains stubbornly high. At the moment, countries have plenty of room to raise tariffs without falling foul of their multilateral commitments. Reducing this wiggle room means reviving the Doha round of trade talks, which began in 2001 and collapsed in a bout of finger-pointing in Jul
10、y 2008. At the most recent G20 summit in Toronto, the commitment to conclude the deal by the end of 2010 was quietly dropped from the leaders communiqu. Despite this, the WTOs chief, Pascal Lamy, remains upbeat. On July 27th he said that “after some months of impasse in the negotiationswe are beginn
11、ing to see signs of a new dynamic emerging.” He is not alone in sensing a change for the better. Christopher Wenk of the US Chamber of Commerce, which represents American business interests, reckons that “there really has been a shift in the mood.” That partly reflects a change in Americas stance. I
12、t took Barack Obama until April this year to appoint Michael Punke as Americas ambassador to the WTO. “Until recently, it was difficult for business to say with a straight face that the administration was serious about trade,” says Mr Wenk. Yet whatever the mood music, the gaps between what differen
13、t countries expect from further negotiations seem only to have grown wider. America believes that inking a trade deal that results in little fresh liberalisation is pointless. But Indias recently-departed ambassador to the WTO, Ujal Bhatia, says that the focus should be on “capturing liberalisation
14、that has already happened autonomously”, rather than striving for further opening. Chinas position is pretty similar. Without tangible benefits in terms of new market access, however, Americas administration will find it difficult to sell any deal on Doha back home, particularly given a stuttering e
15、conomic recovery. It is said to be urging the likes of China and India to commit to much deeper cuts in their tariffs on manufactured-goods imports than were proposed earlier. One Indian official suggests that some flexibility might be forthcoming. A deal could actually be made easier by bringing ot
16、her industries into the talks. Mr Punke argues that “services need to be a bigger part of the discussions,” which have so far largely concentrated on agriculture and manufactures. Aaditya Mattoo, a trade economist at the World Bank, believes that offers on services could help break the deadlock in t
17、he Doha talks. For instance, Indias thriving outsourcing industry relies on access to the American market. An offer to firm up the legal status of that access might make India more willing to compromise on matters like agriculture: its on farm trade was blamed for the collapse of the talks in July 2
18、008. Unfortunately success also depends on an end to the impasse between America and China, whose trade relations seem stuck. Mr Punke is downbeat, saying “there are no suggestions from China for a fruitful mechanism, only the same talking-points repeated.” If the bounce back in global trade since t
19、he crunch has been surprising and encouraging, the sheer slog involved in trade negotiations is all too familiar and depressing. Firms with interim bosses usually opt for the quiet life, but the lack of a permanent boss did not stop Hewlett-Packard (HP) from launching a bidding war on August 23rd. T
20、he computer giant offered to buy 3Par, a data-storage firm, for $1.5 billion, topping the $1.15 billion offered a week earlier by Dell, a longtime rival of HP. On August 19th Intel, a chipmaker, splashed out $7.68 billion to buy McAfee, an antivirus-software firm. Nor is the fun confined to high-tec
21、h. On August 17th PotashCorp, a firm that mines potash, from which fertiliser is made, received and promptly rejected a $38.6 billion offer from BHP Billiton, a mining giant. BHP is now pursuing a hostile bid. Investment bankers are delighted. This quarter will probably see more mergers and acquisit
22、ions (M&A) than any since the crash . Is a new merger wave, wide ly predicted in the past year, finally breaking? M&A is a confidence game, reckons Carsten Stendevad of Citigroups corporate-finance advisory arm. That makes the recent increase in activity surprising, since business confidence has bee
23、n weak, he says. However, the coincidence of several deals happening at once may make other bosses pluck up the courage to make a move. “Its the front-page effect,” says Mr Stendevad. Not everyone thinks such deals are wise. Yet, even allowing for macroeconomic uncertainty, conditions are ripe for a
24、 surge in them. For a start, potential buyers are brimming with cash. Firms in America and Europe built up record reserves during the crisis, out of fear. If they dont spend them, investors will demand bigger dividends or share buy-backs. The tough economy has helped the top firms in many industries
25、 to strengthen their position, in terms both of market share and of stockmarket valuation. These firms are now well-placed to do the sort of consolidating deals that tend to deliver better results to investors than the supposedly “visionary” strategic mergers that are more common when the economy is
26、 booming. So far, the bosses of weaker firms have typically resisted takeovers by telling their shareholders that the market is undervaluing their shares and that they will soon perk up. These shareholders may now be losing patience. Publicly traded firms are reluctant targets, but there are many wi
27、lling corporate brides in the portfolios of private-equity firms. Having raised a stack of cash and often paid over the odds during the bubble years, private-equity firms are under huge pressure to return some money to their investors. Many would like to raise new funds, which is easier if you can s
28、how that the previous one wasnt a complete disaster. At the same time, some private-equity firms have regained their taste for acquisitions: witness Blackstones $4.7 billion purchase of Dynegy this month, the biggest private-equity deal since 2007. A growing share of new deals will be in emerging ma
29、rkets and involve raw materials. For example, Vedanta, an Indian mining and energy firm, recently announced it was buying a majority stake in Cairn Energys Indian oilfields for $8.5 billion. The trend of emerging-market multinationals buying firms in rich countries faltered after the market crash. A
30、cquirers such as Lenovo, a Chinese firm that bought IBMs personal-computer business, found they had not got their moneys worth. But with stronger growth in emerging markets filling the coffers of local firms, their appetite for adventure in the old world is returning. So, too, in the offices of the
31、sovereign-wealth funds that got burned last time. Sovereign funds invested around $12 billion in corporate acquisitions in the second quarter of this year. That is modest, but a big leap from $1.1 billion in the first quarter. The next few weeks will be crucial. M&A activity may slump as quickly as
32、it surged as bosses return from their summer holidays to find the economy still in trouble. But history suggests that once a merger wave begins, it can grow quickly. Mr Stendevad of Citigroup points out that in the first two years of the rebound in deals after the recession of the early 1990s, globa
33、l M&A volume rose by 25% and 24% respectively. In the first two years of recovery after the downturn of 2000-01, it grew by 40% and 43%. Will history repeat itself? 译文 兼并收购 等待新浪潮 资料来源 :经济学人 作者： 史蒂夫哈蒙 在大萧条期间， 1930 年，美国保护主义者斯穆特 -霍利的法案对 900 多种商品增加了关税。其他国家的一系列报复行动随之而来。给全球商业带来的影响是灾难性的。到 1932 年为止的三年内，世界贸易
34、量缩减逾四分之一。因此，毫无疑问，大萧条以来最糟糕的衰退的阴霾导致很多人担心，在贸易方面再次陷入保护主义和类似的衰退。 起初，衰退给贸易带来的冲击很大。 2009 年，全球国内生产总值（ GDP）下降 0.6%，世界出口量下降了 12.2%。然而，在大萧条的时候，贸易至少衰退了 4 年，而这次反弹一直迅速并且幅度大。截至今年 5 月， 20 国集团中的新兴经济体的进出口贸易量比其危机前的峰值高 10%左右，尽管它还没有收复信贷紧缩开始以来的所有失地，但是富裕世界的贸易也已经触底反弹。 贸易并没有因下滑期间采取的一系列保护主义行动而遭到严重破坏。世界银行称，在衰退期间，由于关税的增加和反倾销关税
35、造成的世界贸易崩溃不到五十分之一。贸易减少大部分反映出需求减少。 甚至还有一些证据表明贸易活动平衡了危机前存在的不平衡贸易模式。那时，新兴 世界从富裕国家进口的比例一路稳步下行。但是现在新兴经济体的需求正在以超乎普遍意识到的程度帮助扶持富裕世界的出口。根据国际货币基金组织的数据，在 20 国集团的 9 个新兴市场中， 2009 年，有 7 个市场从富裕国家进口的比例比前一年要高。 2008 年，中国从富裕国家进口的比例只有 59%，但是这一比例 2008 年跃升至 66%。 2008 年，印度从富裕国家进口的比例为 42%，但是去年这一比例上升至 47%。 这种互利共赢的模式表明了富裕和贫穷国
36、家保持其市场开放的重要性，这样世界一部分地区增长才能帮助刺激其他地方复苏。然而，由于失业 率居高不下，保护国内工业和工作的压力只会增加。在这个时候，各国有很多提高关税的空间而无需违背其多边承诺。 减少这种选择的空间就意味着重启多哈贸易谈判，该谈判开始于 2001 年，在 2008 年 7 月的一阵相互指责中宣告破产。在最近的多伦多 20 国集团峰会上，到 2010 年末达成这项协议的承诺在领导人的联合公报中悄然放弃了。 尽管如此，世界贸易组织总干事帕斯卡尔拉米还是持乐观态度。 7 月 27日，他说：“谈判经过几个月的僵持我们开始看到充满活力兴起的新迹象。”感受到向好的方面发展的人不只他一人。代
37、表美国商业利益的美国商 会的克里斯多弗温克认为“情绪的确发生了转变。”这部分反映出美国立场的一种变化。直到今年 4 月，巴拉克奥巴马才任命迈克尔彭克（ Michael Punke）为美国驻世界贸易组织大使。温克先生说：“最近之前，企业很难当面表示政府很重视贸易。” 然而，无论是什么样的背景，不同国家之间从进一步谈判中期望的东西的差距似乎只会拉大。美国认为，签订一份无法带来什么新的自由的贸易协议是没有意义的。但是最近离任的印度驻世界贸易组织大使巴哈夏表示焦点应该集中在“把握（已经）独立产生的自由上”，而不是寻求进一步开放。中国的立场极其相似。 然而，如果在新的市场准入方面没有实际的利益，美国政府
38、很难让国内民众接受多哈上的任何协议，尤其是在经济复苏亦步亦趋的时候。据称，美国正在敦促中国和印度等国家大大降低其对制造产品的进口关税，降低的幅度比先前提出的还要大。一位印度官员称一些灵活政策可能即将出台。 实际上，将其他工业纳入谈判可能更加容易达成协议。彭克称“服务业必需成为讨论的更大一部分内容”，迄今为止的讨论主要集中在农业和制造业上。世界银行的贸易经济学家阿迪特 亚马图认为，服务业方面的条件可能有助于打破多哈谈判的僵局。比如，印度欣欣向荣的外包产业依赖于进军美国市场。提供巩固这种准入合法地位的条件可能会使印度更加愿意在农业等问题上作出妥协： 2008 年 7 月，谈判破产就是由于印度在农业
39、贸易方面拒不让步。 不幸的是，谈判成功还要取决于中美僵局的终结，两国的贸易关系似乎陷入了胶着状态。彭克对此持悲观态度，称“中国并没有提出促成一个富有成果的机制的建议，只是重复陈词滥调。”如果紧缩以来，全球贸易反弹一直令人吃惊和鼓舞人心，那么单单是贸易谈判的艰难过程就太熟悉不过和令人压抑了 。 一般情况下只有过渡期执行老板的公司都不会有什么大动作，但是缺了常职总裁的惠普公司可没因此而停步， 8 月 23 号惠普投身到一场竞标大战中。这家电脑巨头公司开出 150 亿美元的巨资来收购数据储存公司 3par，在一个星期之前，惠普的老对头戴尔公司开出了收购此公司的最高价 115 亿美元。 8 月 19号
40、芯片制造商因特尔出自 768 亿美元收购杀毒软件公司麦卡菲。收购游戏不仅仅存在于高科技公司之间。 8月 17号，草碱（化肥生产原料）生产公司 PotashCorp毫不犹豫地拒绝了矿业巨头 BHP 高达 386 亿美元的收购报价， BHP 公司现在则准备进行恶意收购。 投资银行家们很开心啊。自金融危机以来，本季度有不少的兼并和收购（并购）。去年有人指出今年会有新的兼并浪潮，果真应验了？ 来自花旗集团企业融资顾问部的 Carsten Stendevad 说：并购是一场信心游戏。因为商业信心指数低，一有点风吹草动都会让人心惊。但是，几门交易同时进行的巧合可以引起其他公司高层鼓足勇气有所作为。 Ste
41、ndevad 先生说“这就是头条效应。 有人认为这些交易是非明智的。但是，即便是考虑到宏观经济的不确定性，并购的出现时机也已经成熟了。首先，潜在购买者有充足的资金。出于 恐惧，美国和欧洲的公司都在危机中积累了空前的储备金。如果现在不出手，公司的股东就将要求更多的红利或者回购。 困难的经济帮助很多产业内顶尖公司巩固了自己在市场份额和证券交易评估方面的地位。对于这些公司做这种平稳交易的话正好处于有利位置，对于投资者来说交易结果也比所谓的“空中楼阁“般的战略兼并来的更好，战略兼并还是在经济繁荣期间比较常见一些。目前，小公司的老板非常抵触兼并者，因为兼并者们告诉小公司的股东说他们手中的股票目前的市场股
42、价低，但是兼并能帮助股价的提升。现在股东们可能正在失去耐心。 虽然很多公共交易公司 不愿意被兼并，但是很多私人股权公司投资组合下的很多新公司正等着被兼并。虽然私人股权公司在泡沫经济时期以高酬率的条件筹集到了很多资金，但是他们也面临着巨大的还款压力。因此很多私人股权公司愿意组建新的资金，只要之前的项目不算太糟，这么做就不是很难。与此同时，一些私人股权公司又重拾收购的兴趣：本月黑石集团以 47 亿美元的价格收购了 Dynegy，这是自 2007 年以来最大的私人股权交易。 越来越多的收购交易出现在了新兴市场和原材料市场。例如，印度的一家矿业能源公司 Vedanta 最近宣布其将以 85 亿美元的价
43、格购买 Cairn Energy 旗下的印度油田。新兴市场中跨国公司购买发达国家公司的潮流也在市场崩盘后衰退了。兼并企业比如说联想，这家来自的中国企业收购了 IBM 旗下的个人计算机业务，最终却发现这次收购并非物有所值。但是随着新兴市场的强劲增长，当地企业的保险库钱也没少增加，他们对于旧世界的探险热情也在回归。 被烧着的还有主权财富基金的办公室。今年第二个季度主权财富基金在企业收购方面的投资约有 120 亿美元。这算是中规中矩，可是对比它第一个季度11 亿美元的投资，这就已经算是大手笔了。 未来几周将非常关键。一旦各个公司的高层从夏假 回来，发现经济仍然处在困境中，那么并购活动的消匿就将和它的兴起一样迅速。历史告诉我们，一旦兼并浪潮兴起，它的发展就势不可挡。花旗集团的 Stendevad 先生指出，在20 世纪 90 年代初期的经济衰退反弹的前两年，全球并购的规模分别增加了 25%和 24%。 2000 年 1 月经济低迷后复苏的前两年，全球并购规模也分别增长了 40% 和 43%。所以，历史会重演吗？
